Nonfarm Payrolls: -23K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls — Actual -23K, forecast 80K, prev 57K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Average Weekly Hours: 34.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Weekly Hours — Actual 34.3, forecast 34.3, prev 34.3. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.2%, forecast 3.5%, prev 3.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.10%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) — Actual 0.10%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.30%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-06: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-06: $1.4B (prior day $1.6B).
DE: Trade Balance s.a.: 15.4B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 15.4B, forecast 17.4B, prev 19.1B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.0σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone June retail sales -0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected · desk brief, Thu 06 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-05): 2s 4.18% (-2.0bp), 10s 4.63% (+0.0bp), 30s 5.17% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-05): VIX 15.81, 2s10s +44bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$10.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-08-05: $6,748,567M, vs $6,738,190M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.8% (was 5.9%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.83%, revised from 5.86%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.72), high 3.710% (inv 3.783%), indirect 54.4% (avg 62.7), direct 6.3% (avg 3.9), dealer 39.3% (avg 33.4).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.68 (avg 2.71), high 3.640% (inv 3.701%), indirect 55.8% (avg 62.1), direct 4.0% (avg 4.4), dealer 40.1% (avg 33.5).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 33.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 33.0B, forecast 31.0B, prev 28.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-06.
Wholesale Inventories: 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 199K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 199K, prev 203K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, forecast 1.79M, prev 1.78M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
EU: Retail Sales (YoY): 0.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.7, forecast 1, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
EU: Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.1, prev 0.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Unit Labor Costs: 1.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Unit Labor Costs — Actual 1.3, forecast 2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Nonfarm Productivity: 1.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Nonfarm Productivity — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.6, prev 0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 199K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 199K, forecast 202K, prev 197K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.6B (-$0.6B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-05: 3.64% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-05: $1.6B (prior day $2.3B).
Challenger Job Cuts: 33K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts — Actual 33K, prev 46K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 6.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) — Actual 6.5, prev 6.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM): 3.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) — Actual 3.1, forecast 0.3, prev 1.9. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.9σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address, 10s -7bp · desk brief, Wed 05 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-04): 2s 4.2% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (-7.0bp), 30s 5.18% (-5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-04): VIX 16.5, 2s10s +43bp.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.19 (avg 2.96), high 3.785% (inv 3.886%), indirect 64.6% (avg 58.4), direct 6.2% (avg 5.8), dealer 29.3% (avg 35.8). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.48M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.48M, forecast -1.50M, prev -7.17M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-05.
ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Prices Paid — Actual 70.3, prev 67.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Services New Orders Index: 57.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders Index — Actual 57.2, prev 55.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.5σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Services Employment Index: 47.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services Employment Index — Actual 47.4, prev 51.2. BELOW FORECAST · -1.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Services PMI: 54.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Services PMI — Actual 54.1, forecast 54.5, prev 54. BELOW FORECAST · -0.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 54.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 54.5, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Services PMI: 54.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 54.6, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed's Kashkari was one of the dissent in the meeting last week, super hawk, so bear that in mind
DESK NOTE
Check out the leans of FED voters in the FED SPEAK tab in calendar widget.
ADP Employment Change: 44K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change — Actual 44K, forecast 70K, prev 98K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.3B (+$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-04: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-04: $2.3B (prior day $2.1B).
Before we kick of cash open, please leave us a review at the link below, it will help when out of BETA. Thank you :)
DESK NOTE
Let us know the good and the bad please - https://www.reddit.com/u/HeliousNewsOfficial/s/wcEmDJ565I
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.9%, prev -6.4%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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