EU: Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.6, forecast 4.6, prev 5.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast -0.3, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
EU: HCOB Composite PMI: 52
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EU: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52, forecast 51.9, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DE: HCOB Services PMI: 49.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: HCOB Services PMI — Actual 49.8, forecast 49.6, prev 49.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DE: HCOB Composite PMI: 51.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51.3, forecast 51.2, prev 51.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 3.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.4, prev 3.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Coul, 10s -5bp · desk brief, Tue 04 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-08-03): 2s 4.25% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-03): VIX 15.86, 2s10s +45bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 2.69M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 2.69M, forecast -2.00M, prev 3.30M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.9% (was 6.2%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.86%, revised from 6.18%.
52-Week (1-year) Bill auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $52B on offer, B/C 3.62 (avg 3.25), high 3.880% (inv 4.054%), indirect 70.8% (avg 64.3), direct 2.3% (avg 3.7), dealer 27.0% (avg 32.0). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.93 (avg 2.82), high 3.640% (inv 3.706%), indirect 61.4% (avg 69.0), direct 3.8% (avg 3.1), dealer 34.8% (avg 27.8).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-04.
Factory Orders (MoM): -0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.36M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
JOLTS Job Openings — Actual 7.36M, forecast 7.40M, prev 7.59M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.7, prev 8.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -73.3B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual -73.3B, forecast -73.0B, prev -77.6B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-03: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-03: $2.1B (prior day $2.2B).
Lending platform stocks climb as the 10-year Treasury yield dips, 10s +7bp · desk brief, Mon 03 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-31): 2s 4.28% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.75% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.27% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-31): VIX 15.99, 2s10s +47bp.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 6.2% (was 5.0%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 6.18%, revised from 4.95%.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $79B on offer, B/C 2.98 (avg 2.88), high 3.855% (inv 3.986%), indirect 57.0% (avg 59.0), direct 10.3% (avg 8.4), dealer 32.7% (avg 32.6).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.61 (avg 2.75), high 3.750% (inv 3.838%), indirect 54.1% (avg 54.8), direct 6.3% (avg 6.8), dealer 39.5% (avg 38.4).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-03.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 71.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Actual 71.1, forecast 70.3, prev 73. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 56.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index — Actual 56.7, prev 56.0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 52.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index — Actual 52.8, prev 49.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI — Actual 55.6, forecast 54, prev 53.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.9, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-31: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-31: $2.2B (prior day $1.1B).
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.2, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
DE: Retail Sales (YoY): -0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
DE: Retail Sales (MoM): -1.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
DE: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -1.1, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Week ahead: ISM Manufacturing PMI Monday, ADP Employment Change Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 03 Aug 2026
DAILY BRIEF
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 03 August 2026 — 30 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 7 Treasury auctions.
Fed's Barkin: don't know if I would have voted for higher rates this w, 10s +1bp · desk brief, Fri 31 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-30): 2s 4.23% (+1.0bp), 10s 4.68% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.21% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-30): VIX 17.09, 2s10s +45bp.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 120K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 120K, prev 82K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -17K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 182K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 182K, prev 184K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 451
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 451, prev 450. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-07-31.
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, forecast 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, forecast 4.2, prev 4.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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