Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 2.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): Actual 2.7, forecast 2.4, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): Actual 2.7, prev 1.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: 1.18
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Jobs / Applicants Ratio: Actual 1.18, forecast 1.18, prev 1.18. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Japan · Unemployment Rate: 2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Unemployment Rate: Actual 2.5, forecast 2.4, prev 2.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Fed’s Kashkari keeps October open, still sees more hikes ahead, 10s +3bp · Thu 01 Oct 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-30): 2s 4.88% (-1.0bp), 10s 5.29% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.64% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-30): VIX 16.34, 2s10s +41bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, -$4.7B w/w — QT run-off continues
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-30: $6,743,031M, vs $6,747,704M the prior week.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.7% (was 3.7%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.68%, revised from 3.74%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.70 (avg 2.90), high 3.990% (inv 4.071%), indirect 56.8% (avg 63.6), direct 7.1% (avg 4.6), dealer 36.1% (avg 31.8).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.83 (avg 2.83), high 3.890% (inv 3.956%), indirect 63.9% (avg 64.5), direct 4.8% (avg 3.3), dealer 31.4% (avg 32.2).
🚀 Helious moves out of beta next week and goes fully live 🚀
DESK NOTE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 64.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 64.0B, forecast 64.0B, prev 53.0B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q4 CPI 4.2% · core CPI 2.6% · PCE 3.9% · core PCE 3.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q4 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 4.2%, core CPI 2.6%, PCE 3.9%, core PCE 3.1%. Model update as of 2026-10-01.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Actual 54.5, forecast 55, prev 54.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 55.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: Actual 55.3, prev 53.7. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 52.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Actual 52.7, prev 51.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 77.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: Actual 77.9, forecast 72.3, prev 71.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 55.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 55.9, forecast 56.9, prev 57. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.70M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.70M, forecast 1.73M, prev 1.72M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 200K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 200K, prev 202K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 197K, forecast 200K, prev 197K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.90% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $11.5B (+$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-30: 3.90% (prior 3.88%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-30: $11.5B (prior day $11.4B).
Challenger Job Cuts: 43K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Challenger Job Cuts: Actual 43K, prev 53K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Eurozone · Unemployment Rate: 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Unemployment Rate: Actual 6.4, prev 6.4. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: Actual 53.9, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook: 21
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook: Actual 21, forecast 22, prev 17. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: 24
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: Actual 24, forecast 25, prev 22. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Tankan Large All Industry Capex: 11.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Tankan Large All Industry Capex: Actual 11.3, forecast 12.3, prev 11.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crosses 5.30% to highest since 2002, 10s +2bp · Wed 30 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-29): 2s 4.89% (-3.0bp), 10s 5.26% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.59% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-29): VIX 16.04, 2s10s +37bp.
Grain Stock Report: 2.10B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Grain Stock Report: Actual 2.10B. RELEASED. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $75B on offer, B/C 2.89 (avg 2.91), high 4.115% (inv 4.230%), indirect 57.8% (avg 53.9), direct 6.0% (avg 7.3), dealer 36.2% (avg 38.8).
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 3.7% (was 5.0%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 3.74%, revised from 5.02%.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -2.25M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -2.25M, prev -0.43M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.68M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual -1.68M, prev -1.69M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.62M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual -0.62M, prev 0.35M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 0.92M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual 0.92M, forecast -0.30M, prev 2.97M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.6% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 1.9% · core PCE 2.3%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.6%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 1.9%, core PCE 2.3%. Model update as of 2026-09-30.
Chicago PMI: 58.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago PMI: Actual 58.8, forecast 51.2, prev 47.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): 5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ): Actual 5, forecast 5.3, prev 5.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): 3.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ): Actual 3.3, forecast 3.6, prev 3.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Personal Spending: 0.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Personal Spending: Actual 0.9, forecast 0.8, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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