Initial Jobless Claims: 208K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 208K, prev 215K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Retail Sales (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 41.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 41.4, forecast 13, prev 10.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): -0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast -0.1, prev 0.8. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.2B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-15: 3.64% (prior 3.63%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-15: $0.2B (prior day $0.3B).
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%, 10s -4bp — desk brief, Wed 15 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-14): 2s 4.18% (-8.0bp), 10s 4.58% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.08% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-14): VIX 16.5, 2s10s +40bp.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 3.35 (avg 2.92), high 3.845%, indirect 60.0% (avg 58.6), direct 6.1% (avg 4.8), dealer 33.8% (avg 36.6). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: +3.0M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual +3.0M, prev 3.00M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-15.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.7%, forecast 5.2%, prev 4.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 5.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.5%, forecast 6.2%, prev 6.5%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.5σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.40%. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.28%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.28%, forecast 0.00%, prev 1.10%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 15.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 15.6, forecast 8.8, prev 5.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.63% (+3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-14: 3.63% (prior 3.60%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-14: $0.3B (prior day $0.8B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.7%, prev -2.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -0.1σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Inflation has biggest drop since 2020, 10s +6bp — desk brief, Tue 14 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-13): 2s 4.26% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.62% (+6.0bp), 30s 5.1% (+4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-13): VIX 17.16, 2s10s +36bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +3.0M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual +3.0M, prev -0.40M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Total Net TIC Flows: 132.2B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 132.2B, prev 26.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: 232.7B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual 232.7B, forecast 128.0B, prev 103.1B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 3.00), high 3.706%, indirect 72.4% (avg 64.9), direct 1.7% (avg 3.6), dealer 25.9% (avg 31.5). IN LINE demand, no directional read for bonds.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-14.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.2, prev 11.5. BELOW FORECAST · -5.5σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 336.07
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 336.07, prev 336.121. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 333.95
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 333.95, forecast 334.7, prev 335.12. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.5%, forecast 3.8%, prev 4.2%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.0σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index (MoM): -0.40%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.40%, forecast -0.10%, prev 0.50%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.6%, forecast 2.8%, prev 2.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.00%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.00%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. BELOW FORECAST · -3.3σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 20K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 20K, prev 21K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.60% (+5bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.8B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-13: 3.60% (prior 3.55%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-13: $0.8B (prior day $0.5B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 97.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 97.4, forecast 95.8, prev 95.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ANZ on FOMC & US Data, 10s +2bp — desk brief, Mon 13 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-10): 2s 4.21% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.56% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.06% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-10): VIX 15.03, 2s10s +35bp.
Monthly Budget Statement: -120.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -120.0B, forecast -132.8B, prev -293.0B. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $79B on offer, B/C 3.11 (avg 2.75), high 3.992%, indirect 66.5% (avg 58.3), direct 8.1% (avg 7.1), dealer 25.4% (avg 34.6). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.84 (avg 2.59), high 3.849%, indirect 56.8% (avg 51.1), direct 8.2% (avg 6.2), dealer 35.0% (avg 42.7). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.8% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.8%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.5%. Model update as of 2026-07-13.
Money markets: SOFR 3.55% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$5.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-10: 3.55% (prior 3.53%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-10: $0.5B (prior day $5.8B).
Week ahead: Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Tuesday, Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy Tuesday — US data & auctions, w/c 13 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 13 July 2026 — 34 scheduled US events, 12 high-impact, 6 Treasury auctions.
French inflation confirmed to fall in June, easing pressure on the ECB, 10s -2bp — desk brief, Fri 10 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-09): 2s 4.16% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.54% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.05% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-09): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +38bp.
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