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Latest desk notes

Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Composite PMI: 54.5
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 54.5, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Services PMI: 54.6
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 54.6, forecast 53.6, prev 53.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
DESK NOTE 05 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
Fed's Kashkari was one of the dissent in the meeting last week, super hawk, so bear that in mind
Check out the leans of FED voters in the FED SPEAK tab in calendar widget.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 12:15 UTC
ADP Employment Change: 44K
ADP Employment Change — Actual 44K, forecast 70K, prev 98K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.3B (+$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-04: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-04: $2.3B (prior day $2.1B).
DESK NOTE 05 Aug 2026, 11:53 UTC
Before we kick of cash open, please leave us a review at the link below, it will help when out of BETA. Thank you :)
Let us know the good and the bad please - https://www.reddit.com/u/HeliousNewsOfficial/s/wcEmDJ565I
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.9%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.9%, prev -6.4%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6
EU: Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.6, forecast 4.6, prev 5.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.3
EU: Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast -0.3, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC
EU: HCOB Composite PMI: 52
EU: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 52, forecast 51.9, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 07:55 UTC
DE: HCOB Services PMI: 49.8
DE: HCOB Services PMI — Actual 49.8, forecast 49.6, prev 49.6. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 05 Aug 2026, 07:55 UTC
DE: HCOB Composite PMI: 51.3
DE: HCOB Composite PMI — Actual 51.3, forecast 51.2, prev 51.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 3.4
JP: Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.4, prev 3.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF 04 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC
This Indicator Hasn’t Been This High in 4 Years. It Means the Fed Coul, 10s -5bp · desk brief, Tue 04 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-08-03): 2s 4.25% (-3.0bp), 10s 4.7% (-5.0bp), 30s 5.23% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-08-03): VIX 15.86, 2s10s +45bp. Narrative: Stock market today: Dow, S&P 50…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 2.69M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 2.69M, forecast -2.00M, prev 3.30M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 16:13 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.9% (was 6.2%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.86%, revised from 6.18%.
TREASURY AUCTION 04 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
52-Week (1-year) Bill auction — STRONG
52-Week (1-year) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 3.62 (avg 3.25), high 3.880% (inv 4.054%), indirect 70.8% (avg 64.3), direct 2.3% (avg 3.7), dealer 27.0% (avg 32.0). STRONG demand → bo…
TREASURY AUCTION 04 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.93 (avg 2.82), high 3.640% (inv 3.706%), indirect 61.4% (avg 69.0), direct 3.8% (avg 3.1), dealer 34.8% (avg 27.8). IN LINE demand → bonds BEAR…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-04.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
Factory Orders (MoM): -0.3
Factory Orders (MoM) — Actual -0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC
JOLTS Job Openings: 7.36M
JOLTS Job Openings — Actual 7.36M, forecast 7.40M, prev 7.59M. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 13:50 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.7
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.7, prev 8.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC
Goods and Services Trade Balance: -73.3B
Goods and Services Trade Balance — Actual -73.3B, forecast -73.0B, prev -77.6B. ON THE SCREWS · -0.1σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 04 Aug 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-08-03: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-08-03: $2.1B (prior day $2.2B).
DAILY BRIEF 03 Aug 2026, 21:05 UTC
Lending platform stocks climb as the 10-year Treasury yield dips, 10s +7bp · desk brief, Mon 03 Aug 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-31): 2s 4.28% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.75% (+7.0bp), 30s 5.27% (+6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-31): VIX 15.99, 2s10s +47bp. Narrative: Gold Gains as Iran Talks Ease …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 6.2% (was 5.0%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 6.18%, revised from 4.95%.
TREASURY AUCTION 03 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.98 (avg 2.88), high 3.855% (inv 3.986%), indirect 57.0% (avg 59.0), direct 10.3% (avg 8.4), dealer 32.7% (avg 32.6). IN LINE demand …
TREASURY AUCTION 03 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.61 (avg 2.75), high 3.750% (inv 3.838%), indirect 54.1% (avg 54.8), direct 6.3% (avg 6.8), dealer 39.5% (avg 38.4). IN LINE demand →…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:11 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.1% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.1%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-08-03.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: 71.1
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Actual 71.1, forecast 70.3, prev 73. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 56.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index — Actual 56.7, prev 56.0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 52.8
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index — Actual 52.8, prev 49.7. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI — Actual 55.6, forecast 54, prev 53.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 13:44 UTC
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.9
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.9, forecast 53.8, prev 53.8. ON THE SCREWS · +0.1σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 12:11 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.66% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $2.2B (+$1.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-31: 3.66% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-31: $2.2B (prior day $1.1B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.2
DE: HCOB Manufacturing PMI — Actual 52.2, forecast 52.2, prev 52.2. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Retail Sales (YoY): -0.2
DE: Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.2, prev 1.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 03 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC
DE: Retail Sales (MoM): -1.1
DE: Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual -1.1, forecast -0.5, prev 1.1. BELOW FORECAST. Bunds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
DAILY BRIEF 02 Aug 2026, 18:10 UTC
Week ahead: ISM Manufacturing PMI Monday, ADP Employment Change Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 03 Aug 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 03 August 2026 — 30 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 7 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 14:00 UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast 54) • 14:00 …
DAILY BRIEF 31 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Fed's Barkin: don't know if I would have voted for higher rates this w, 10s +1bp · desk brief, Fri 31 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-30): 2s 4.23% (+1.0bp), 10s 4.68% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.21% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-30): VIX 17.09, 2s10s +45bp. Narrative: Trump Casts Doubt on New Iran …
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