UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: -13
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · GfK Consumer Confidence: Actual -13, forecast -16, prev -14. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Trump Welcomes Xi With AI Concerns at Forefront, 10s +15bp · Thu 24 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-23): 2s 4.85% (+14.0bp), 10s 5.11% (+15.0bp), 30s 5.4% (+11.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-23): VIX 14.21, 2s10s +26bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$1.2B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-23: $6,747,704M, vs $6,746,548M the prior week.
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DESK NOTE
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7-Year Note auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $44B on offer, B/C 2.42 (avg 2.49), high 5.085%, tailed 0.7bp, indirect 57.2% (avg 64.6), direct 30.3% (avg 23.3), dealer 12.5% (avg 12.1).
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.76 (avg 2.91), high 3.990% (inv 4.071%), indirect 58.8% (avg 63.2), direct 6.0% (avg 4.6), dealer 35.2% (avg 32.2).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $90B on offer, B/C 2.61 (avg 2.86), high 3.850% (inv 3.915%), indirect 46.2% (avg 66.3), direct 3.4% (avg 4.0), dealer 50.4% (avg 29.7). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 20
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: Actual 20, prev 17. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 53.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: Actual 53.0B, forecast 53.0B, prev 44.0B. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.68M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales (MoM): Actual 0.68M, forecast 0.62M, prev 0.61M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
New Home Sales Change (MoM): 6.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales Change (MoM): Actual 6.4, prev -10.5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Current Account: -246.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Current Account: Actual -246.0B, forecast -255.0B, prev -226.8B. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 202K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: Actual 202K, prev 203K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 197K, forecast 201K, prev 196K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.72M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims: Actual 1.72M, forecast 1.75M, prev 1.73M. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (+$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-23: 3.87% (prior 3.87%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-23: $0.5B (prior day $0.5B).
Germany · IFO – Expectations: 90.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Expectations: Actual 90.4, forecast 89.3, prev 89.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: 89.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Current Assessment: Actual 89.5, forecast 89, prev 88.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: 89.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · IFO – Business Climate: Actual 89.9, forecast 89, prev 88.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.1 sigma. Desk read: Bunds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
10-year Treasury yield rockets to 19-year high. Here's what's driving · Wed 23 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-22): 2s 4.71% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.96% (+0.0bp), 30s 5.29% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-22): VIX 14.21, 2s10s +25bp.
5-Year Note auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $70B on offer, B/C 2.21 (avg 2.33), high 5.033%, tailed 3.1bp, indirect 54.3% (avg 65.2), direct 29.9% (avg 21.8), dealer 15.8% (avg 12.9). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
2-Year FRN auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $28B on offer, B/C 2.63 (avg 3.21), indirect 59.1% (avg 64.2), direct 0.0% (avg 0.2), dealer 40.9% (avg 35.6). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 2.81 (avg 2.97), high 4.135% (inv 4.251%), indirect 55.1% (avg 55.1), direct 10.1% (avg 6.7), dealer 34.7% (avg 38.2).
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.97M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Actual 2.97M, forecast -0.70M, prev -0.64M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.69M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: Actual -1.69M, prev 0.79M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.35M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: Actual 0.35M, prev 0.68M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: -0.43M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: Actual -0.43M, prev 1.58M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-23.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 58.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI: Actual 58.4, prev 56. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
S&P Global Services PMI: 58.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 58.7, forecast 56, prev 56.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 57
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 57, forecast 53.5, prev 53.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.87% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.5B (-$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-22: 3.87% (prior 3.85%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-22: $0.5B (prior day $0.6B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -1.5%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications: Actual -1.5%, prev -4.1%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds NEUTRAL · Equities NEUTRAL.
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Services PMI: Actual 51.7, forecast 52, prev 52.5. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52, forecast 51.4, prev 51.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: 51.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · S&P Global Composite PMI: Actual 51.7, prev 52.5. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: 53
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Services PMI: Actual 53, forecast 51.7, prev 51.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: 52.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Manufacturing PMI: Actual 52.7, forecast 52.7, prev 52.7. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: 53.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · HCOB Composite PMI: Actual 53.1, forecast 51.5, prev 52. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: 52.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · HCOB Services PMI: Actual 52.9, forecast 50, prev 49.7. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.2 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
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