Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -100K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 230K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 136K
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Capacity Utilization: 76.3
Money markets: SOFR 3.85% (+23bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$5.1B d/d)
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.7
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): 0.6
UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 2.4
UK · Retail Sales (MoM): 0.5
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1
BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 1.25
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 2
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.7
Warsh wins credibility with Fed rate hike: 5 takeaways, 10s +1bp · Thu 17 Sep 2026
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$5.9B w/w — balance sheet expanding
10-Year TIPS auction: WEAK
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.1% (was 5.1%)
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 44.0B
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -4.7
Pending Home Sales (MoM): 0.3
Building Permits Change: -2.7
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.73M
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.27M
Building Permits (MoM): 1.39M
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 37.8
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 203K
Housing Starts Change: -2.6
Initial Jobless Claims: 196K
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.4B (+$4.7B d/d)
BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged: 6
BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike: 3
BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut: 0
BoE Interest Rate Decision: 3.75
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4
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