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Latest desk notes

US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK

10-year Treasury yield rises back to 5% as global tightening wave push, 10s -7bp · Fri 18 Sep 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-17): 2s 4.67% (-7.0bp), 10s 4.94% (-7.0bp), 30s 5.29% (-6.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-17): VIX 15.44, 2s10s +27bp.

CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -100K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -100K, prev -76K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 230K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 230K, prev 232K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 136K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 136K, prev 137K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 451, prev 450. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Capacity Utilization: 76.3

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.3, forecast 76.4, prev 76.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Money markets: SOFR 3.85% (+23bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (-$5.1B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-17: 3.85% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-17: $0.3B (prior day $5.4B).

UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY): 2.7

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) — Actual 2.7, forecast 1.9, prev 2.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM): 0.6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) — Actual 0.6, forecast -0.2, prev -0.9. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

UK · Retail Sales (YoY): 2.4

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 2.4, forecast 1.9, prev 1.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

UK · Retail Sales (MoM): 0.5

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.5, forecast -0.2, prev -0.5. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY): 4.6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 4.6, forecast 4.1, prev 3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM): 1.1

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 1.1, forecast 0.4, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision: 1.25

ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Actual 1.25, forecast 1.25, prev 1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.

Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY): 2

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) — Actual 2, forecast 1.8, prev 1.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.9

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 1.9, prev 1.9. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.

Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.7

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) — Actual 1.7, prev 1.8. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.

Warsh wins credibility with Fed rate hike: 5 takeaways, 10s +1bp · Thu 17 Sep 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-16): 2s 4.74% (+7.0bp), 10s 5.01% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.35% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-16): VIX 17.71, 2s10s +27bp.

Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$5.9B w/w — balance sheet expanding

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-16: $6,746,548M, vs $6,740,619M the prior week.

10-Year TIPS auction: WEAK

TREASURY AUCTION
. $19B on offer, B/C 2.24 (avg 2.38), high 2.653%, tailed 1.9bp, indirect 59.1% (avg 63.4), direct 28.7% (avg 24.4), dealer 12.2% (avg 12.2). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.

8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.94 (avg 2.88), high 3.920% (inv 3.999%), indirect 62.4% (avg 61.9), direct 4.8% (avg 4.8), dealer 32.8% (avg 33.3).

4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $90B on offer, B/C 3.02 (avg 2.80), high 3.820% (inv 3.885%), indirect 69.9% (avg 64.0), direct 3.1% (avg 4.2), dealer 27.0% (avg 31.9).

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.1% (was 5.1%)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.08%, revised from 5.10%.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 44.0B

ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 44.0B, forecast 49.0B, prev 40.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Pending Home Sales (YoY): -4.7

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -4.7, prev -2.2. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).

Pending Home Sales (MoM): 0.3

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Pending Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 2, prev -2.3. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).

Building Permits Change: -2.7

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Building Permits Change — Actual -2.7, prev 5. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).

Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.73M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.73M, forecast 1.78M, prev 1.77M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Housing Starts (MoM): 1.27M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.27M, forecast 1.31M, prev 1.24M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Building Permits (MoM): 1.39M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.39M, forecast 1.41M, prev 1.44M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey: 37.8

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey — Actual 37.8, forecast 30.5, prev 47.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 203K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 203K, prev 206K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

Housing Starts Change: -2.6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Housing Starts Change — Actual -2.6, prev -12.4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

Initial Jobless Claims: 196K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 196K, forecast 208K, prev 206K. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $5.4B (+$4.7B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-16: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-16: $5.4B (prior day $0.7B).

BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged: 6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged — Actual 6, forecast 6, prev 6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike: 3

ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike — Actual 3, forecast 3, prev 3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut: 0

ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut — Actual 0, forecast 0, prev 0. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

BoE Interest Rate Decision: 3.75

ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoE Interest Rate Decision — Actual 3.75, forecast 3.75, prev 3.75. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
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