BoE Interest Rate Decision: 3.75
ECONOMIC RELEASE
BoE Interest Rate Decision — Actual 3.75, forecast 3.75, prev 3.75. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.4, forecast 2.4, prev 2.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, prev 0.2. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Federal Reserve defies Donald Trump with first rate rise since 2023, 10s +3bp · Wed 16 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-15): 10s 5.0% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-15): VIX 17.2, 2s10s +33bp.
Total Net TIC Flows: 83.7B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Total Net TIC Flows — Actual 83.7B, prev 133.5B. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Net Long-Term TIC Flows: -27.9B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows — Actual -27.9B, forecast 146.3B, prev 172.7B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Fed Interest Rate Decision: 4.00%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Fed Interest Rate Decision — Actual 4.00%, forecast 4.00%, prev 3.75%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Interest Rate Projections - Longer: 3.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Interest Rate Projections - Longer — Actual 3.2, prev 3.1. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Interest Rate Projections - Current: 4.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Interest Rate Projections - Current — Actual 4.1, prev 3.8. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year: 3.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Interest Rate Projections - 3rd year — Actual 3.6, prev 3.1. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year: 3.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year — Actual 3.9, prev 3.4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Interest Rate Projections - 1st year: 4.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Interest Rate Projections - 1st year — Actual 4.1, prev 3.6. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 5.1% (was 4.4%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 5.10%, revised from 4.42%.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 2.72 (avg 3.05), high 4.030% (inv 4.141%), indirect 52.4% (avg 57.1), direct 5.3% (avg 6.9), dealer 42.3% (avg 36.0). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 1.58M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual 1.58M, prev 2.09M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 0.79M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 0.79M, prev 1.27M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -0.64M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.64M, forecast -1.60M, prev -0.39M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.68M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.68M, prev 0.01M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-16.
NAHB Housing Market Index: 32
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index — Actual 32, forecast 34, prev 35. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Business Inventories: 0.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Business Inventories — Actual 0.8, forecast 0.3, prev 0. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Import Price Index (YoY): 7.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.0%, prev 5.9%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (YoY): 6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 6, prev 5. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Export Price Index (YoY): 8.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 8.6%, prev 8.2%. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales Control Group: 1.40%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales Control Group — Actual 1.40%, prev -0.40%. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM): 1.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) — Actual 1.4, forecast 0.5, prev -0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Export Price Index (MoM): 0.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, prev -1.3%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Import Price Index (MoM): 0.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.7%, forecast 0.4%, prev -0.4%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Retail Sales (MoM): 1.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Retail Sales (MoM) — Actual 1.2, forecast 0.8, prev -0.6. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.2 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.7B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-15: 3.64% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-15: $0.7B (prior day $1.4B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.1%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -4.1%, prev -2.7%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY): 3.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4, forecast 3.5, prev 3.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Retail Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.6, prev 0.6. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a: 3.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 3.7, forecast 3.3, prev 3.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.7, forecast 0.3, prev 0.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a: 2.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a — Actual 2.7, prev 2.8. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a: 0.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a — Actual 0.3, prev 0.6. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.6, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.1, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.
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