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Latest desk notes

Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Personal Income (MoM): 0.2
Personal Income (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.3, prev 0.7. BELOW FORECAST · -0.6σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 197K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 197K, forecast 200K, prev 187K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.2σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM): 0.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.2, prev 0.3. BELOW FORECAST · -1.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:13 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $2.6B (+$1.4B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-29: 3.65% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-29: $2.6B (prior day $1.1B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.8
German: Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.7, prev 2.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.7σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.8
German: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.8, forecast 2.8, prev 2.4. ON THE SCREWS. Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 30 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.8
German: Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.8, forecast 0.7, prev -0.3. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.0σ. Bunds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
DAILY BRIEF 29 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Treasury 30-year yield tops 5.20% for the first time since 2007, 10s -4bp · desk brief, Wed 29 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-28): 2s 4.26% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.61% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.09% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-28): VIX 18.21, 2s10s +35bp. Narrative: Will New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh…
DESK NOTE 29 Jul 2026, 18:07 UTC
Checkout FED SPEAK in calendar widget to see FED voters lean:
The descents are from the absolute Hawks, so no surprise there, we have this all worked out for you on Helious.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC
Fed Interest Rate Decision: 3.75%
Fed Interest Rate Decision — Actual 3.75%, forecast 3.75%, prev 3.75%. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DESK NOTE 29 Jul 2026, 17:17 UTC
This has now been fixed - we will be squawking out FOMC at the presser :)
TREASURY AUCTION 29 Jul 2026, 15:33 UTC
2-Year FRN auction: IN LINE
2-Year FRN auction: IN LINE. B/C 3.37 (avg 3.16), indirect 63.2% (avg 62.7), direct 0.0% (avg 0.3), dealer 36.8% (avg 37.0). IN LINE demand → bonds BULLISH.
TREASURY AUCTION 29 Jul 2026, 15:33 UTC
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 3.04 (avg 2.93), high 3.875% (inv 3.980%), indirect 57.6% (avg 57.6), direct 8.4% (avg 5.3), dealer 33.9% (avg 37.1). IN LINE demand →…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -7.17M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -7.17M, forecast -2.50M, prev 2.01M. BELOW FORECAST · -1.9σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 14:13 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-29.
DESK NOTE 29 Jul 2026, 12:28 UTC
Trump: US strikes will take place against Iran in response to attacks on US targets in Jordan
Trump stated this in a Fox news interview.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 12:13 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $1.1B (-$0.3B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-28: 3.65% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-28: $1.1B (prior day $1.4B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 29 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.4%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -6.4%, prev 1.9%. BELOW FORECAST · -2.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
DAILY BRIEF 28 Jul 2026, 22:05 UTC
Citadel Securities’ Fed Rate Hike Call Adds to Market Angst, 10s -4bp · desk brief, Tue 28 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-27): 2s 4.31% (-2.0bp), 10s 4.65% (-4.0bp), 30s 5.12% (-4.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-27): VIX 18.67, 2s10s +35bp. What mattered: • Citadel Securities’ Fed …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.30M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 3.30M, forecast -1.50M, prev 2.60M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 28 Jul 2026, 17:11 UTC
7-Year Note auction: IN LINE
7-Year Note auction: IN LINE. B/C 2.49 (avg 2.48), high 4.473%, tailed 0.2bp, indirect 70.1% (avg 64.5), direct 16.9% (avg 24.0), dealer 13.0% (avg 11.4). IN LINE demand → bonds BE…
TREASURY AUCTION 28 Jul 2026, 15:33 UTC
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.93 (avg 2.85), high 3.700% (inv 3.768%), indirect 72.7% (avg 68.4), direct 4.5% (avg 2.7), dealer 22.8% (avg 28.8). IN LINE demand → bonds BULL…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 14:33 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.5% (was 1.6%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.54%, revised from 1.58%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 14:07 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-28.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — Actual 5, forecast 10, prev 4. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 13:08 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 7.8. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 13:02 UTC
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY): 1.6
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) — Actual 1.6, forecast 1.3, prev 1.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.8σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 13:02 UTC
Housing Price Index (MoM): 0.3
Housing Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:31 UTC
Wholesale Inventories: 0.3
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 0.3, forecast 0.2, prev 0.1. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:31 UTC
Goods Trade Balance: -101.5B
Goods Trade Balance — Actual -101.5B, forecast -98.0B, prev -106.5B. BELOW FORECAST · -1.2σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
DESK NOTE 28 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Market flips to bull steepen, tech catching a bid, keep eyes on market over the next few hours for this theme to continue post data.
Volume typically light with book balancing ahead of FOMC.
DESK NOTE 28 Jul 2026, 12:28 UTC
Checkout Implied Vol and Cross Asset correlation in the DATA tab on your live feed
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:18 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 15K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 15K, prev 16K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 28 Jul 2026, 12:12 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (+$0.7B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-27: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-27: $1.4B (prior day $0.7B).
DAILY BRIEF 27 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
US advanced Durable Goods orders for June 0.3% vs 2.5% expected, 10s -2bp · desk brief, Mon 27 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-24): 2s 4.33% (-4.0bp), 10s 4.69% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.16% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-24): VIX 18.58, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: U.S. and Iran pause fighting, …
DESK NOTE 27 Jul 2026, 18:42 UTC
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TREASURY AUCTION 27 Jul 2026, 17:14 UTC
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — STRONG
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 3.06 (avg 2.65), high 3.815% (inv 3.906%), indirect 66.9% (avg 51.9), direct 5.9% (avg 6.6), dealer 27.2% (avg 41.5). STRONG demand → b…
TREASURY AUCTION 27 Jul 2026, 17:14 UTC
5-Year Note auction — IN LINE
5-Year Note auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.28 (avg 2.33), high 4.408%, tailed 0.9bp (avg +0.6bp), indirect 59.2% (avg 66.6), direct 27.2% (avg 20.0), dealer 13.5% (avg 13.4). IN LINE dem…
TREASURY AUCTION 27 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 3.12 (avg 2.82), high 3.945% (inv 4.081%), indirect 59.7% (avg 60.7), direct 10.6% (avg 7.7), dealer 29.6% (avg 31.5). IN LINE demand …
TREASURY AUCTION 27 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
2-Year Note auction — STRONG
2-Year Note auction — STRONG. B/C 2.66 (avg 2.60), high 4.315%, stopped through 0.5bp (avg +0.1bp), indirect 56.6% (avg 57.0), direct 34.1% (avg 29.4), dealer 9.4% (avg 13.7). STRO…
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