Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.1
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.5
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.14M
Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total: -1,105.6B
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -840.6B
Japan · Imports (YoY): 28
Japan · Exports (YoY): 19.3
Iran war likely to drive up inflation next year, CBO says, 10s +1bp · Tue 15 Sep 2026
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.1M
20-Year Bond auction: WEAK
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.5
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 7.6
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$3.8B d/d)
Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 25.8
Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 34.7
Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -47.1
UK · Claimant Count Rate: 4.4
UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.9
UK · Claimant Count Change: 28K
UK · Employment Change (3M): 67K
UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.9
UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.5
These 3 under-the-radar stocks could rally if Fed raises rates this we, 10s +1bp · Mon 14 Sep 2026
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $5.3B (+$0.5B d/d)
Week ahead: Retail Sales Wednesday, Retail Sales Control Group Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 14 Sep 2026
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%, 10s +12bp · Fri 11 Sep 2026
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 232K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 137K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -76K
Monthly Budget Statement: -166.8B
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.4
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 45.8
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6
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