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Latest desk notes

US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK

UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.6, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.1

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.1, forecast 3.1, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.5

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.5, forecast 0.5, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.14M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 7.14M, forecast -1.80M, prev -0.30M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total: -1,105.6B

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Merchandise Trade Balance Total — Actual -1,105.6B, forecast -1,052.6B, prev -634.5B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.2 sigma.

Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -840.6B

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance — Actual -840.6B, forecast -1.00T, prev -686.0B. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 2.8 sigma.

Japan · Imports (YoY): 28

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Imports (YoY) — Actual 28, forecast 26.3, prev 27.8. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.

Japan · Exports (YoY): 19.3

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Exports (YoY) — Actual 19.3, forecast 18.2, prev 23.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.

Iran war likely to drive up inflation next year, CBO says, 10s +1bp · Tue 15 Sep 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-14): 2s 4.65% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.97% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.34% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-14): VIX 17.1, 2s10s +32bp.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 7.1M

ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual 7.1M, forecast -1.80M, prev -0.30M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 3.0 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

20-Year Bond auction: WEAK

TREASURY AUCTION
. $13B on offer, B/C 2.57 (avg 2.65), high 5.420%, tailed 2.0bp, indirect 52.5% (avg 68.0), direct 30.7% (avg 21.3), dealer 16.9% (avg 10.7). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.

6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $75B on offer, B/C 3.16 (avg 2.89), high 3.850% (inv 3.921%), indirect 68.8% (avg 65.7), direct 3.1% (avg 3.4), dealer 28.1% (avg 30.9).

Redbook Index (YoY): 8.5

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.5, prev 8.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: 7.6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — Actual 7.6, forecast 14.75, prev 20.6. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).

ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 16K, prev 12K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $1.4B (-$3.8B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-14: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-14: $1.4B (prior day $5.3B).

Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 25.8

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 25.8, forecast 39.9, prev 31.4. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 3.5 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.

Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment: 34.7

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment — Actual 34.7, forecast 37, prev 34.2. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.6 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.

Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation: -47.1

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · ZEW Survey – Current Situation — Actual -47.1, forecast -52.2, prev -61.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.

UK · Claimant Count Rate: 4.4

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Claimant Count Rate — Actual 4.4, prev 4.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M): 4.9

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) — Actual 4.9, forecast 5, prev 4.9. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.0 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).

UK · Claimant Count Change: 28K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Claimant Count Change — Actual 28K, forecast 8K, prev -11K. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Gilts neutral · Equities neutral.

UK · Employment Change (3M): 67K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Employment Change (3M) — Actual 67K, prev 83K. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).

UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.9

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.9, forecast 3.9, prev 4.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr): 3.5

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) — Actual 3.5, forecast 3.5, prev 3.5. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.

These 3 under-the-radar stocks could rally if Fed raises rates this we, 10s +1bp · Mon 14 Sep 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-11): 2s 4.63% (+7.0bp), 10s 4.96% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.35% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-11): VIX 15.84, 2s10s +33bp.

26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $79B on offer, B/C 2.74 (avg 2.89), high 4.060% (inv 4.203%), indirect 60.8% (avg 58.1), direct 6.2% (avg 9.8), dealer 33.1% (avg 32.2).

13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE

TREASURY AUCTION
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.80), high 3.970% (inv 4.066%), indirect 55.1% (avg 54.7), direct 6.8% (avg 7.2), dealer 38.1% (avg 38.1).

Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $5.3B (+$0.5B d/d)

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-11: 3.62% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-11: $5.3B (prior day $4.7B).

Week ahead: Retail Sales Wednesday, Retail Sales Control Group Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 14 Sep 2026

DAILY BRIEF
The week of Monday 14 September 2026 has 27 scheduled US events, 10 high-impact, 8 Treasury auctions.

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%, 10s +12bp · Fri 11 Sep 2026

DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-10): 2s 4.56% (+13.0bp), 10s 4.95% (+12.0bp), 30s 5.37% (+9.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-10): VIX 17.84, 2s10s +39bp.

CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 232K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 232K, prev 228K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 137K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 137K, prev 130K. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -76K

ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -76K, prev -76K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Monthly Budget Statement: -166.8B

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement — Actual -166.8B, forecast -404.0B, prev -432.0B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 6.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 449. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 2.2% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.0%

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 2.2%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-11.

UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.4

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.4, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.

Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 45.8

ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 45.8, prev 51.5. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.

UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6

ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.6, prev 4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
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