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Economic releases with the σ surprise and the measured market reaction, Treasury auction recaps, and the daily brief, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.

ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 14:59 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.6% (was 1.7%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.58%, revised from 1.68%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index: 1.3
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index — Actual 1.3, prev 0. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 14:14 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.5% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.6% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.5%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-27.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft: 0.9
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft — Actual 0.9, prev 1.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense: 0.3
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense — Actual 0.3, prev -4.6. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Durable Goods Orders: 0.3
Durable Goods Orders — Actual 0.3, forecast 1.6, prev -4.5. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.6
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.9, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 27 Jul 2026, 12:10 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-24: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-24: $0.7B (prior day $0.9B).
DAILY BRIEF 26 Jul 2026, 18:10 UTC
Week ahead: Fed Interest Rate Decision Wednesday, FOMC Press Conference Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 27 Jul 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 27 July 2026 — 40 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 10 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 12:30 UTC Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (forec…
DAILY BRIEF 24 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
ECB facing mid-sized inflation shock, will get to 2% in year or so, La, 10s +4bp — desk brief, Fri 24 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-23): 2s 4.37% (+6.0bp), 10s 4.71% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.17% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-23): VIX 18.7, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: Oil Soars As Trump Warns Iran W…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 19:36 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 82K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 82K, prev 63K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 19:36 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -39K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 19:36 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 184K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 184K, prev 187K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 17:01 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 14:03 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.8% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.8%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-24.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.63M
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.63M, forecast 0.61M, prev 0.58M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.8
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.8, forecast 54.5, prev 53.9. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Composite PMI: 53.6
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 53.6, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 13:45 UTC
S&P Global Services PMI: 53.6
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 53.6, forecast 51, prev 51.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 24 Jul 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.9B (+$0.5B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-23: 3.64% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-23: $0.9B (prior day $0.4B).
DAILY BRIEF 23 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 187K, 10s +4bp — desk brief, Thu 23 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-22): 2s 4.31% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.15% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-22): VIX 16.64, 2s10s +36bp. Narrative: Trump’s dubious nuclear deal w…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 20:35 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$4.3B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-22: $6,747,378M, vs $6,743,028M the prior week.
TREASURY AUCTION 23 Jul 2026, 17:07 UTC
10-Year Note auction — IN LINE
10-Year Note auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.30 (avg 2.50), high 2.438%, indirect 65.2% (avg 69.8), direct 25.0% (avg 20.4), dealer 9.9% (avg 9.8). IN LINE demand → bonds BEARISH.
TREASURY AUCTION 23 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction — WEAK
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction — WEAK. B/C 2.31 (avg 2.80), high 3.795% (inv 3.871%), indirect 39.7% (avg 65.8), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 55.6% (avg 30.7). WEAK demand → bonds …
TREASURY AUCTION 23 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.79 (avg 2.67), high 3.730% (inv 3.793%), indirect 65.5% (avg 60.6), direct 4.7% (avg 4.4), dealer 29.8% (avg 35.0). IN LINE demand → …
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 17
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 19. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 32.0B
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 32.0B, forecast 29.0B, prev 41.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 14:07 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-23.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 208K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 208K, prev 214K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.02
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.02, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims: 187K
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 187K, forecast 212K, prev 208K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 23 Jul 2026, 12:12 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-22: 3.62% (prior 3.61%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-22: $0.4B (prior day $0.3B).
DAILY BRIEF 22 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Turkey Rates to Stay Put as Middle East War Impedes Disinflation, 10s +3bp — desk brief, Wed 22 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-21): 2s 4.26% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.13% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-21): VIX 17.05, 2s10s +37bp. Narrative: UniCredit: Has the Iran War Be…
TREASURY AUCTION 22 Jul 2026, 17:06 UTC
20-Year Bond auction — WEAK
20-Year Bond auction — WEAK. B/C 2.64 (avg 2.60), high 5.163%, tailed 0.5bp (avg -0.3bp), indirect 69.1% (avg 63.9), direct 16.2% (avg 23.9), dealer 14.7% (avg 12.2). WEAK demand →…
TREASURY AUCTION 22 Jul 2026, 15:37 UTC
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.76 (avg 2.95), high 3.845% (inv 3.949%), indirect 53.1% (avg 58.4), direct 5.6% (avg 5.1), dealer 41.3% (avg 36.5). IN LINE demand →…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 22 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.01M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.01M, forecast -1.50M, prev -1.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 22 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-22.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 22 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.61% (+4bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-21: 3.61% (prior 3.57%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-21: $0.3B (prior day $0.0B).
ECONOMIC RELEASE 22 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC
MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.9%
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 1.9%, prev -2.7%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
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