UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.6, prev 4. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 47.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 47.8, forecast 51, prev 51.7. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 1.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Traders now see about a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, vs about 70% before the inflation report.
DESK NOTE
Market repricing toward Fed hikes after hot inflation data tightens policy expectations, pushing borrowing costs higher and squeezing both bonds and shares.
Consumer Price Index Core s.a: 337.76
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index Core s.a — Actual 337.76, prev 336.79. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM): 334.98
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) — Actual 334.98, forecast 334.85, prev 333.92. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 2.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 2.4%, forecast 2.4%, prev 2.5%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.30%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.30%, forecast 0.20%, prev 0.20%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.7 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, prev 3.4%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.40%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.40%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.10%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $4.7B (+$4.3B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-10: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-10: $4.7B (prior day $0.4B).
UK · Consumer Inflation Expectations: 3.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 3.2, prev 4. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · Gross Domestic Product (MoM) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0, prev 0.3. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.7 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.6, forecast 7.4, prev 7.2. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM): -0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.2, forecast 0, prev 0.1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Treasury yields surge after Bessent’s beefed-up buyback operation fail, 10s +3bp · Thu 10 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-09): 2s 4.43% (+4.0bp), 10s 4.83% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.28% (+3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-09): VIX 16.46, 2s10s +39bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$3.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-09-09: $6,740,619M, vs $6,737,204M the prior week.
30-Year Bond auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $22B on offer, B/C 2.61 (avg 2.38), high 5.308%, stopped through 2.7bp, indirect 79.5% (avg 66.4), direct 18.3% (avg 22.0), dealer 2.2% (avg 11.5). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: 0.01M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual 0.01M, prev -0.03M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: 1.27M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual 1.27M, prev -1.17M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 2.09M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual 2.09M, prev 0.80M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -0.39M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.39M, forecast -1.60M, prev -4.45M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q3 growth tracking 4.4% (was 4.7%)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q3 2026: 4.42%, revised from 4.75%.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $85B on offer, B/C 2.82 (avg 2.86), high 3.845% (inv 3.922%), indirect 66.3% (avg 61.3), direct 6.0% (avg 4.5), dealer 27.7% (avg 34.2).
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $90B on offer, B/C 2.81 (avg 2.80), high 3.775% (inv 3.839%), indirect 71.8% (avg 62.8), direct 3.9% (avg 4.2), dealer 24.3% (avg 33.0).
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 40.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 40.0B, forecast 35.0B, prev 30.0B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.4 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-10.
Wholesale Inventories: 1.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories — Actual 1.3, forecast 1.3, prev 1.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Existing Home Sales (MoM): 3.98M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Existing Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 3.98M, forecast 3.98M, prev 4.06M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.77M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.77M, forecast 1.78M, prev 1.78M. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY): 4.6%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) — Actual 4.6%, forecast 4.6%, prev 4.2%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Producer Price Index (YoY): 5.4%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (YoY) — Actual 5.4%, forecast 5.3%, prev 4.7%. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM): 0.20%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) — Actual 0.20%, forecast 0.30%, prev 0.20%. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 206K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 206K, prev 207K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH (rates-driven tape).
Initial Jobless Claims: 206K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 206K, forecast 205K, prev 206K. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS by 0.1 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH (rates-driven tape).
Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.40%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Producer Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.40%, forecast 0.40%, prev 0.00%. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECB Rate On Deposit Facility: 2.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ECB Rate On Deposit Facility — Actual 2.5, forecast 2.5, prev 2.25. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate: 2.65
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate — Actual 2.65, forecast 2.65, prev 2.4. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-09: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-09: $0.4B (prior day $0.6B).
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
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