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ALL DESK NOTES AUCTIONS DATA FED SPEAK
DAILY BRIEF 21 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
US ADP Wkly Employment Change Actual 16.5k (Forecast -, Previous 19.75, 10s +5bp — desk brief, Tue 21 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-20): 2s 4.21% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.6% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.11% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-20): VIX 18.65, 2s10s +37bp. Narrative: UniCredit: Has the Iran War Bec…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 21 Jul 2026, 20:30 UTC
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -1.7M
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -1.7M, forecast -1.50M, prev -0.06M. BELOW FORECAST · -66666.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
TREASURY AUCTION 21 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE
6-Week Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.79 (avg 2.93), high 3.650% (inv 3.717%), indirect 71.0% (avg 66.4), direct 2.6% (avg 3.2), dealer 26.4% (avg 30.4). IN LINE demand → bonds BULL…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 21 Jul 2026, 14:06 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-21.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 21 Jul 2026, 12:55 UTC
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.8
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.8, prev 8.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 21 Jul 2026, 12:15 UTC
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 16K, prev 20K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 21 Jul 2026, 12:14 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.57% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.0B (-$0.1B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-20: 3.57% (prior 3.59%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-20: $0.0B (prior day $0.1B).
DAILY BRIEF 20 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Canada Inflation Falls to 2.8%, Core Measures Ease, 10s -2bp — desk brief, Mon 20 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-17): 2s 4.18% (+2.0bp), 10s 4.55% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.06% (-3.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-17): VIX 18.77, 2s10s +37bp. Narrative: Energy secretary: US 'will con…
TREASURY AUCTION 20 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.94 (avg 2.79), high 3.835% (inv 3.965%), indirect 58.4% (avg 60.0), direct 11.0% (avg 6.8), dealer 30.6% (avg 33.2). IN LINE demand …
TREASURY AUCTION 20 Jul 2026, 15:34 UTC
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — STRONG
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction — STRONG. B/C 3.00 (avg 2.61), high 3.730% (inv 3.818%), indirect 55.8% (avg 52.0), direct 6.8% (avg 6.4), dealer 37.4% (avg 41.6). STRONG demand → b…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 20 Jul 2026, 14:09 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.9% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.9%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-20.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 20 Jul 2026, 12:09 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.59% (-3bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-17: 3.59% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-17: $0.1B (prior day $0.1B).
DAILY BRIEF 19 Jul 2026, 18:10 UTC
Week ahead: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Friday, S&P Global Services PMI Friday — US data & auctions, w/c 20 Jul 2026
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 20 July 2026 — 15 scheduled US events, 2 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions. Monday: • 15:30 UTC 13-Week Bill Auction · $92B • 15:30 UTC 26-Wee…
DAILY BRIEF 17 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
Credit Ágricole: FX & Gold Outlook, 10s +2bp — desk brief, Fri 17 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-16): 2s 4.16% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.57% (+2.0bp), 30s 5.09% (+1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-16): VIX 16.73, 2s10s +41bp. Narrative: Chevron Will Explore a Pipelin…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 19:47 UTC
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 63K
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 63K, prev 76K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 19:47 UTC
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 187K
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 187K, prev 194K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 19:47 UTC
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -39K
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -39K, prev -43K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 17:44 UTC
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 452
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 452, forecast 446, prev 445. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 15:26 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.7%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.68%, revised from 1.74%.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 14:11 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.7% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.1% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.7%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.1%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-17.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index: 54
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index — Actual 54, prev 50.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.3
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation — Actual 3.3, prev 3.3. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations: 4.2
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations — Actual 4.2, prev 4.6. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 54.4
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — Actual 54.4, forecast 51, prev 49.5. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.6σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 13:15 UTC
Capacity Utilization: 76.1
Capacity Utilization — Actual 76.1, forecast 76.2, prev 76.2. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Import Price Index (YoY): 7.1
Import Price Index (YoY) — Actual 7.1, prev 6.7. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Export Price Index (YoY): 10.2
Export Price Index (YoY) — Actual 10.2, prev 11.2. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Export Price Index (MoM): -0.6
Export Price Index (MoM) — Actual -0.6, forecast -0.4, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Import Price Index (MoM): 0.3%
Import Price Index (MoM) — Actual 0.3%, forecast -0.7%, prev 1.9%. ABOVE FORECAST · +3.3σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Housing Starts (MoM): 1.43M
Housing Starts (MoM) — Actual 1.43M, forecast 1.31M, prev 1.18M. ABOVE FORECAST · +2181.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC
Building Permits (MoM): 1.37M
Building Permits (MoM) — Actual 1.37M, forecast 1.40M, prev 1.41M. BELOW FORECAST · -666.7σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 17 Jul 2026, 12:03 UTC
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (-2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.1B (-$0.0B d/d)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-16: 3.62% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-16: $0.1B (prior day $0.2B).
DAILY BRIEF 16 Jul 2026, 21:05 UTC
BOK Delivers First Rate Hike Since Early 2023 Amid Chip-Led Boom, 10s -3bp — desk brief, Thu 16 Jul 2026
Treasuries (close 2026-07-15): 2s 4.13% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.55% (-3.0bp), 30s 5.08% (+0.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-15): VIX 15.67, 2s10s +42bp. Narrative: Fed's Chair Warsh: The labor m…
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 20:36 UTC
Fed balance sheet $6.74T, +$7.4B w/w — balance sheet expanding
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-15: $6,743,028M, vs $6,735,609M the prior week.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 16:06 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Q2 growth tracking 1.7% (was 1.3%)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate of real GDP growth (SAAR) for Q2 2026: 1.74%, revised from 1.26%.
TREASURY AUCTION 16 Jul 2026, 15:36 UTC
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction — IN LINE
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction — IN LINE. B/C 2.84 (avg 2.86), high 3.722%, indirect 67.6% (avg 65.3), direct 3.9% (avg 3.4), dealer 28.4% (avg 31.3). IN LINE demand → bonds BULLISH…
TREASURY AUCTION 16 Jul 2026, 15:36 UTC
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction — WEAK
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction — WEAK. B/C 2.57 (avg 2.77), high 3.721%, indirect 53.7% (avg 65.3), direct 5.5% (avg 3.8), dealer 40.8% (avg 30.9). WEAK demand → bonds BEARISH.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: +61.0Bcf
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual +61.0Bcf, forecast 45.0B, prev 61.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +1333333333.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 14:06 UTC
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 0.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.2% · core PCE 3.2%
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 0.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.2%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-16.
ECONOMIC RELEASE 16 Jul 2026, 14:01 UTC
Pending Home Sales (YoY): -0.3
Pending Home Sales (YoY) — Actual -0.3, prev 4.8. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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