Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY): 2.9
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) — Actual 2.9, forecast 2.9, prev 2.9. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) — Actual 0.2, forecast 0.2, prev 0.2. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Trump says Iran war will end right after US midterm elections · Wed 09 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-08): 2s 4.39%, 10s 4.8%, 30s 5.25%. Tape (close 2026-09-08): VIX 15.72, 2s10s +41bp. Narrative: Oil Just Broke $100 a Barrel.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -0.30M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -0.30M, forecast -1.30M, prev -2.60M. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
10-Year Note auction: STRONG
TREASURY AUCTION
. $39B on offer, B/C 2.71 (avg 2.49), high 4.834%, stopped through 1.5bp, indirect 79.2% (avg 73.4), direct 16.5% (avg 16.4), dealer 4.3% (avg 10.2). STRONG demand, Bonds BULLISH.
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 2.73 (avg 3.10), high 3.895% (inv 4.001%), indirect 43.7% (avg 59.5), direct 8.2% (avg 6.9), dealer 48.1% (avg 33.6). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
US Treasury: Will buy up to $6 bln in 10 to 20 Yr liquidity buyback operation on September 10th.
DESK NOTE
Less buybacks than expected, so long ends yields catching a bid, turning us into a bear steepener for the session.
All eyes on PPI and CPI data tomorrow and Friday.
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change: -0.0M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — Actual -0.0M, prev -0.03M. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: -1.2M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — Actual -1.2M, prev -1.17M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Distillate Stocks Change: 0.8M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Distillate Stocks Change — Actual 0.8M, prev 0.80M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: -4.5M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual -4.5M, prev -4.45M. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-09.
Redbook Index (YoY): 8.3
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 8.3, prev 9.6. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 12K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 12K, prev 12K. ON THE SCREWS. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral (rates-driven tape).
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.6B (-$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-08: 3.64% (prior 3.65%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-08: $0.6B (prior day $0.7B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: -2.7%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual -2.7%, prev 0.8%. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
US Hit Targets Near Iran’s Kharg Island, Fox News Says, 10s +1bp · Tue 08 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-04): 2s 4.37% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.78% (+1.0bp), 30s 5.24% (-1.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-04): VIX 15.3, 2s10s +41bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -4.5M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -4.5M, prev -2.60M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Consumer Credit Change: 18.1B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change — Actual 18.1B, forecast 11.7B, prev 14.2B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.8 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $75B on offer, B/C 2.93 (avg 2.89), high 3.740% (inv 3.809%), indirect 63.0% (avg 67.3), direct 3.8% (avg 3.6), dealer 33.2% (avg 29.2).
3-Year Note auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $58B on offer, B/C 2.72 (avg 2.62), high 4.474%, on the screws, indirect 62.1% (avg 65.5), direct 26.9% (avg 20.4), dealer 10.9% (avg 14.1).
26-Week (6-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $79B on offer, B/C 2.88 (avg 2.93), high 3.890% (inv 4.023%), indirect 64.4% (avg 57.3), direct 8.5% (avg 10.1), dealer 27.1% (avg 32.6).
13-Week (3-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $92B on offer, B/C 2.61 (avg 2.88), high 3.800% (inv 3.890%), indirect 51.9% (avg 57.2), direct 8.1% (avg 6.9), dealer 40.0% (avg 35.9).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.3% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.0%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.3%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.0%. Model update as of 2026-09-08.
Money markets: SOFR 3.65% (-1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.0B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-09-04: 3.65% (prior 3.66%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-09-04: $0.7B (prior day $0.7B).
NFIB Business Optimism Index: 98.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index — Actual 98.7, forecast 99.3, prev 99.8. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Germany · Trade Balance s.a.: 21.3B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Germany · Trade Balance s.a. — Actual 21.3B, forecast 16.0B, prev 15.4B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.6 sigma. Desk read: Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY): 2.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) — Actual 2.6, forecast 2.6, prev 2.6. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma.
Japan · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) — Actual 0.4, forecast 0.4, prev 0.3. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Annualized: 1.4
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Gross Domestic Product Annualized — Actual 1.4, forecast 1.1, prev 1.1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.3 sigma. Desk read: JGBs BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Japan · Current Account n.s.a.: 2,988.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Current Account n.s.a. — Actual 2,988.0B, forecast 2,870.0B, prev -92.3B. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 0.5 sigma. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Japan · Labor Cash Earnings (YoY): 4.7
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Japan · Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) — Actual 4.7, forecast 3.9, prev 3.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: JGBs neutral · Equities neutral.
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY): 0.5
ECONOMIC RELEASE
UK · BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) — Actual 0.5, forecast 1.2, prev 1. Surprise: BELOW FORECAST by 0.9 sigma. Desk read: Gilts BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
US Adds 162,000 Jobs, Triple Expectations, Putting Bitcoin, ETH and XR, 10s -2bp · Mon 07 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-03): 2s 4.34% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.77% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.25% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-03): VIX 14.32, 2s10s +41bp.
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY): 1.2
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) — Actual 1.2, forecast 1, prev 1. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 1.3 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ): 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.4, prev 0.4. Surprise: ABOVE FORECAST by 2.0 sigma. Desk read: Bunds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Eurozone · Employment Change (QoQ): 0.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Employment Change (QoQ) — Actual 0.1, forecast 0.1, prev 0.1. Surprise: ON THE SCREWS, but by under a tenth of a sigma. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence: 5.1
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Eurozone · Sentix Investor Confidence — Actual 5.1, prev 0.9. ABOVE PRIOR. Desk read: Bunds neutral · Equities neutral.
Week ahead: Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy Thursday, Producer Price Index Thursday · US data & auctions, w/c 07 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
The week of Monday 07 September 2026 has 25 scheduled US events, 8 high-impact, 9 Treasury auctions.
Nonfarm Payrolls: 162K, 10s -2bp · desk brief, Fri 04 Sep 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-09-03): 2s 4.34% (-5.0bp), 10s 4.77% (-2.0bp), 30s 5.25% (-2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-09-03): VIX 14.32, 2s10s +43bp.
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