What the market
is paying for US rates over the next four years, next to the same contracts six and twelve
months ago.
Latest reading
Next Fed decision ·
16 Sep 2026
3.837%
priced for the quarter from 16 Sep 2026
The first quarter that decision can move. The path climbs to
4.290% by
Jun 2030 and tops out there. A year ago the same quarter priced
3.070%. Decisions after that:
28 Oct 2026, 9 Dec 2026, 27 Jan 2027.
The strip: every contract, at three dates
The whole strip, then and now
Left to right is further into the future. Each line is one day's view of that
whole path, so the distance between the lines is how much the market changed its mind.
Whites are the next four quarters, then reds,
greens and blues. They shift along on
10 Dec 2026, the morning after the last decision the front quarter can
price.
Strip
Seen from
WhiteRedGreenBlue
3.0%3.5%4.0%
Now 4.290%
6mo ago 3.595%
12mo ago 3.620%
Sep 26Mar 27Sep 27Mar 28Sep 28Mar 29Sep 29Mar 30
Now 4.290%6mo ago 3.595%12mo ago 3.620%
What the market expects three-month SOFR to average over each quarter. SOFR is the secured overnight rate that replaced Libor.
One contract's own history
Follow single contracts
Pick up to 5 contracts and watch what the market paid for each of
them, day by day. At 5 the next one you add replaces the one you picked first, and
the counter below says when you are there. Clear all empties it so you can build a set from
scratch.
The same numbers as the chart above, for reading rather than looking.
3-month SOFR futures
by contract, now and at two earlier dates
Covers
Pack
Now
6 months ago
12 months ago
Change in a year
16 Sep 2026 to
16 Dec 2026
White 1
3.837%
3.430%
3.070%
+77bp
16 Dec 2026 to
17 Mar 2027
White 2
4.040%
3.330%
2.990%
+105bp
17 Mar 2027 to
16 Jun 2027
White 3
4.175%
3.275%
2.960%
+121bp
16 Jun 2027 to
15 Sep 2027
White 4
4.255%
3.240%
2.970%
+128bp
15 Sep 2027 to
15 Dec 2027
Red 1
4.270%
3.220%
3.010%
+126bp
15 Dec 2027 to
15 Mar 2028
Red 2
4.245%
3.220%
3.060%
+119bp
15 Mar 2028 to
21 Jun 2028
Red 3
4.220%
3.240%
3.115%
+110bp
21 Jun 2028 to
20 Sep 2028
Red 4
4.210%
3.270%
3.170%
+104bp
20 Sep 2028 to
20 Dec 2028
Green 1
4.205%
3.310%
3.225%
+98bp
20 Dec 2028 to
21 Mar 2029
Green 2
4.210%
3.350%
3.280%
+93bp
21 Mar 2029 to
20 Jun 2029
Green 3
4.215%
3.390%
3.330%
+88bp
20 Jun 2029 to
19 Sep 2029
Green 4
4.225%
3.430%
3.385%
+84bp
19 Sep 2029 to
19 Dec 2029
Blue 1
4.235%
3.475%
3.440%
+80bp
19 Dec 2029 to
20 Mar 2030
Blue 2
4.250%
3.515%
3.495%
+75bp
20 Mar 2030 to
19 Jun 2030
Blue 3
4.265%
3.555%
3.555%
+71bp
19 Jun 2030 to
18 Sep 2030
Blue 4
4.290%
3.595%
3.620%
+67bp
How to read it
A futures price is quoted as 100 minus the rate, so a price of 95.90 is a rate
of 4.10 percent. That conversion is done for you here; every number on this page is already a
rate.
These are prices, not forecasts. They are what people are paying now to fix a
rate for a future period, and they are often wrong. What makes them worth watching is that
they are the numbers the market is actually trading, and that you can see how far they have
moved. The three lines are the same contracts on three different days, which is why the gap
between them is a change of mind rather than a change of subject.
The two strips are different rates and are never mixed. SOFR is secured
borrowing against Treasuries; the fed funds effective rate is unsecured lending between
banks. They sat about three basis points apart at the start of September, and SOFR jumps at
quarter ends when balance sheets are dressed for reporting.
Questions
FAQ
What is a white, a red, a green and a blue?
They are how a rates desk names the strip, four contracts to a colour. The whites are the next four quarterly contracts, covering 16 Sep 2026 through 15 Sep 2027. The reds are the four after that, then greens, then blues, which reaches Jun 2030. They shift by one when the front contract expires, and the next time that happens is 10 Dec 2026.
What rate is this actually showing?
Two different ones, and the page keeps them apart. The SOFR strip shows what the market expects three-month SOFR, the secured overnight rate that replaced Libor, to average over each quarter. The fed funds strip shows what it expects the Fed's own effective rate to average over each month. They are close but not the same: SOFR is secured and the fed funds rate is not, and SOFR jumps at quarter ends. Do not read one lane's number as the other's.
Why do the two strips not line up month for month?
Because the contracts cover different periods. A three-month SOFR contract labelled Mar 2027 covers the three months between two mid-month dates, not the calendar month. A fed funds contract covers the calendar month exactly. On a curve that slopes, comparing them by label compares two different stretches of time.
What does the gap between the lines mean?
It is how far the market has changed its mind. The biggest move on this strip is Jun 2027: priced at 2.970% a year ago and 4.255% now, a change of +128bp. The lines compare the SAME contracts on three different days, so each gap is one market revising one future quarter.
Is this a forecast?
No. It is a price. It is what people are paying today to fix a rate for a future period, which is a different thing from a prediction and is frequently wrong. Its value is that it is the number the market itself is trading on, and that you can see how far it has moved.
How far out does it go, and why stop there?
Sixteen quarterly contracts, which is four years. Contracts list well beyond that, but the four packs are the span a desk actually quotes, and past it the prices thin out.
Take it with you
Everything on this page is every listed contract on both strips with its implied rate now, six months ago and twelve months ago at
api.helious.io/v1/rate-path,
and as the get_rate_path tool on
api.helious.io/mcp if you want your own
model to read it.
