Unemployment Rate: release dates, results and history
Unemployment Rate last printed 4.2% on Fri, Oct 2, 2026 against a 4.1% consensus forecast and a 4.1% prior, a +0.77 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
The rate comes out of the household survey, a survey of people rather than the count of jobs on payrolls, so the two can pull apart badly. When they do, the rate is usually what everyone ends up talking about. A 0.2pp rise gets more airtime than a 100k payroll miss. It is also the number the Sahm rule reads for a recession trigger, and the employment half of the Fed's dual mandate runs through it.
The trend
How it moves Treasuries
Treasuries rally when the rate comes in above forecast, because more slack in the labor market brings Fed cuts closer. A single tenth of a point above consensus can do it when the market is already leaning toward easing, and the rally lands hardest at the front end, in the shortest maturities. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | +0.77 | ABOVE FORECAST | |
| 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.00 | ON THE SCREWS | |
| 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | -0.77 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.77 | BELOW FORECAST |
The 4 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE (%) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 4.1% | +0.1% | |
| 4.1% | 4.1% | +0.0% | |
| 4.1% | 4.2% | -0.1% | |
| 4.2% | 4.3% | -0.1% | |
| 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% | |
| 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% | |
| 4.3% | 4.4% | -0.1% | |
| 4.4% | 4.3% | +0.1% |
These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.
Related indicators
Monthly, first Friday with Nonfarm Payrolls · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.