Unemployment Rate last printed 4.1% on Fri, Aug 7, 2026 against a 4.2% consensus forecast and a 4.2% prior, a -0.77 sigma surprise. Published by Bureau of Labor Statistics, captured live by Helious.
The unemployment rate comes from the household survey and can diverge sharply from payrolls. When it does, the rate usually wins the narrative. It's the input to Sahm-rule recession triggers and the Fed's dual mandate. A 0.2pp rise gets more airtime than a 100k payroll miss.
A higher-than-expected unemployment rate is bullish Treasuries: labor slack means the Fed cuts sooner. Even a tenth above consensus can rally the front end hard when the market is primed for easing. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 7, 2026 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | -0.77σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 2, 2026 | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | -0.77σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (%) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 4.1% | 4.2% | -0.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | 4.2% | 4.3% | -0.1% |
| 2026-05-01 | 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-01 | 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-01 | 4.3% | 4.4% | -0.1% |
| 2026-02-01 | 4.4% | 4.3% | +0.1% |
| 2026-01-01 | 4.3% | 4.4% | -0.1% |
| 2025-12-01 | 4.4% | 4.5% | -0.1% |
| 2025-11-01 | 4.5% | 4.4% | +0.1% |
| 2025-09-01 | 4.4% | 4.3% | +0.1% |
| 2025-08-01 | 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.3% | 4.1% | +0.2% |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.1% | 4.3% | -0.2% |
| 2025-05-01 | 4.3% | 4.2% | +0.1% |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.2% | 4.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-01 | 4.2% | 4.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-01 | 4.2% | 4.0% | +0.2% |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.0% | 4.1% | -0.1% |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.1% | 4.2% | -0.1% |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.2% | 4.1% | +0.1% |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.1% | 4.1% | +0.0% |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.1% | 4.2% | -0.1% |
| 2024-08-01 | 4.2% | 4.2% | +0.0% |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.2% | 4.1% | +0.1% |
| 2024-06-01 | 4.1% | 3.9% | +0.2% |
| 2024-05-01 | 3.9% | 3.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.9% | 3.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.9% | 3.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-02-01 | 3.9% | 3.7% | +0.2% |
| 2024-01-01 | 3.7% | 3.8% | -0.1% |
| 2023-12-01 | 3.8% | 3.7% | +0.1% |
| 2023-11-01 | 3.7% | 3.9% | -0.2% |
| 2023-10-01 | 3.9% | 3.7% | +0.2% |
| 2023-09-01 | 3.7% | 3.7% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-01 | 3.7% | 3.5% | +0.2% |
| 2023-07-01 | 3.5% | — | — |
Official published series (UNRATE) via FRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · released monthly, first friday with nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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