Initial Jobless Claims last printed 206K on Thu, Aug 20, 2026 against a 210K consensus forecast and a 209K prior, a -0.29 sigma surprise. The next release is Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Published by US Department of Labor, captured live by Helious.
Claims are the highest-frequency read on the labor market: a real-time layoffs tape, every Thursday. Desks watch the 4-week average and continuing claims for trend; a sustained grind higher is the earliest hard-data recession signal available. In fragile tape, a bad claims print can move markets like a tier-1 release.
Higher claims are bullish Treasuries: rising layoffs pull Fed cuts forward. A 20-30k miss above consensus reliably bids the front end, especially with continuing claims confirming. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Aug 20, 2026 | 206K | 210K | 209K | -0.29σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Aug 13, 2026 | 209K | 202K | 199K | +0.50σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Thu, Aug 6, 2026 | 199K | 202K | 197K | -0.21σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | 197K | 200K | 187K | -0.21σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 23, 2026 | 187K | 212K | 208K | -1.79σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 16, 2026 | 208K | — | 215K | — | ON THE SCREWS |
| Thu, Jul 9, 2026 | 215K | 218K | 215K | -0.21σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 2, 2026 | 215K | 220K | 215K | -0.36σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (CLAIMS) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 209K | 200K | +9K |
| 2026-08-01 | 200K | 198K | +2K |
| 2026-07-25 | 198K | 189K | +9K |
| 2026-07-18 | 189K | 209K | -20K |
| 2026-07-11 | 209K | 217K | -8K |
| 2026-07-04 | 217K | 217K | +0K |
| 2026-06-27 | 217K | 216K | +1K |
| 2026-06-20 | 216K | 227K | -11K |
| 2026-06-13 | 227K | 230K | -3K |
| 2026-06-06 | 230K | 225K | +5K |
| 2026-05-30 | 225K | 212K | +13K |
| 2026-05-23 | 212K | 210K | +2K |
| 2026-05-16 | 210K | 212K | -2K |
| 2026-05-09 | 212K | 199K | +13K |
| 2026-05-02 | 199K | 190K | +9K |
| 2026-04-25 | 190K | 215K | -25K |
| 2026-04-18 | 215K | 208K | +7K |
| 2026-04-11 | 208K | 218K | -10K |
| 2026-04-04 | 218K | 203K | +15K |
| 2026-03-28 | 203K | 211K | -8K |
| 2026-03-21 | 211K | 205K | +6K |
| 2026-03-14 | 205K | 213K | -8K |
| 2026-03-07 | 213K | 214K | -1K |
| 2026-02-28 | 214K | 211K | +3K |
| 2026-02-21 | 211K | 208K | +3K |
| 2026-02-14 | 208K | 230K | -22K |
| 2026-02-07 | 230K | 230K | +0K |
| 2026-01-31 | 230K | 211K | +19K |
| 2026-01-24 | 211K | 210K | +1K |
| 2026-01-17 | 210K | 201K | +9K |
| 2026-01-10 | 201K | 207K | -6K |
| 2026-01-03 | 207K | 203K | +4K |
| 2025-12-27 | 203K | 215K | -12K |
| 2025-12-20 | 215K | 224K | -9K |
| 2025-12-13 | 224K | 235K | -11K |
| 2025-12-06 | 235K | 216K | +19K |
Official published series (ICSA) via FRED, US Department of Labor data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: US Department of Labor · released weekly, every thursday at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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