Initial Jobless Claims: release dates, results and history
Initial Jobless Claims last printed 197K on Thu, Oct 1, 2026 against a 200K consensus forecast and a 197K prior, a -0.21 standard-deviation surprise. The next release is Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
Claims are the fastest read there is on the labor market, a layoffs tape out every Thursday. The trend is what matters, not any one week, so desks read the 4-week average and continuing claims alongside the headline. A grind higher that keeps going is the earliest recession warning available in hard data. And when the tape is already fragile, one bad claims number can move markets as hard as a tier-1 release.
The trend
How it moves Treasuries
Higher claims rally Treasuries, because more layoffs bring Fed cuts closer. Come in 20 to 30k above consensus and the front end gets bid, reliably, and harder still when continuing claims say the same thing. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 197K | 200K | 197K | -0.21 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 197K | 201K | 196K | -0.29 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 196K | 208K | 206K | -0.86 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 206K | 205K | 206K | +0.07 | ON THE SCREWS | |
| 206K | 205K | 203K | +0.07 | ON THE SCREWS | |
| 203K | 208K | 206K | -0.36 | BELOW FORECAST |
The 6 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE (CLAIMS) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197K | 198K | -1K | |
| 198K | 198K | +0K | |
| 198K | 207K | -9K | |
| 207K | 207K | +0K | |
| 207K | 204K | +3K | |
| 204K | 207K | -3K | |
| 207K | 212K | -5K | |
| 212K | 200K | +12K |
These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.
Related indicators
Weekly, every Thursday · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.