ADP Employment Change: release dates, results and history
ADP Employment Change last printed 90K on Wed, Sep 30, 2026 against a 70K consensus forecast and a 38K prior, a +0.31 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
ADP counts private payrolls and lands two days ahead of NFP, and the timing is most of why anyone watches it. Month to month it does not track the official number well. Traders take it seriously anyway, because nothing else in that window says anything about jobs. A big surprise moves the whisper number, the unofficial NFP forecast people carry in their heads, and positions get pushed around ahead of Friday.
The trend
How it moves Treasuries
A strong ADP is bearish for Treasuries, but the move is a fraction of what the same surprise does on NFP, and part of it is often faded back by Friday. It counts for most when it agrees with what the rest of the labor data has already been saying. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90K | 70K | 38K | +0.31 | ABOVE FORECAST | |
| 38K | 47K | 44K | -0.14 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 44K | 70K | 98K | -0.40 | BELOW FORECAST |
The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Related indicators
Monthly, the Wednesday before Jobs Friday · 8:15 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.