Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) last printed -23K on Fri, Aug 7, 2026 against a 80K consensus forecast and a 57K prior, a -1.43 sigma surprise. The next release is Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Published by Bureau of Labor Statistics, captured live by Helious.
Jobs Friday is the biggest scheduled event in macro outside FOMC. NFP sets the tone for the entire month's Fed narrative: a strong labor market keeps the Fed patient, a crack in payrolls brings cuts forward. Revisions to prior months routinely matter as much as the headline.
A payrolls beat is bearish Treasuries. Big surprises drive 5-10bp yield moves within minutes, front-end led. Watch average hourly earnings in the same report; wage heat can flip the reaction even on a soft headline. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 7, 2026 | -23K | 80K | 57K | -1.43σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 2, 2026 | 57K | 110K | 172K | -0.74σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (K JOBS) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | -23K | +20K | -43K |
| 2026-06-01 | +20K | +63K | -43K |
| 2026-05-01 | +63K | +148K | -85K |
| 2026-04-01 | +148K | +214K | -66K |
| 2026-03-01 | +214K | -156K | +370K |
| 2026-02-01 | -156K | +160K | -316K |
| 2026-01-01 | +160K | -17K | +177K |
| 2025-12-01 | -17K | +41K | -58K |
| 2025-11-01 | +41K | -140K | +181K |
| 2025-10-01 | -140K | +76K | -216K |
| 2025-09-01 | +76K | -70K | +146K |
| 2025-08-01 | -70K | +64K | -134K |
| 2025-07-01 | +64K | -20K | +84K |
| 2025-06-01 | -20K | +13K | -33K |
| 2025-05-01 | +13K | +108K | -95K |
| 2025-04-01 | +108K | +67K | +41K |
| 2025-03-01 | +67K | +42K | +25K |
| 2025-02-01 | +42K | -48K | +90K |
| 2025-01-01 | -48K | +237K | -285K |
| 2024-12-01 | +237K | +134K | +103K |
| 2024-11-01 | +134K | +33K | +101K |
| 2024-10-01 | +33K | +155K | -122K |
| 2024-09-01 | +155K | +9K | +146K |
| 2024-08-01 | +9K | +53K | -44K |
| 2024-07-01 | +53K | +87K | -34K |
| 2024-06-01 | +87K | +78K | +9K |
| 2024-05-01 | +78K | +64K | +14K |
| 2024-04-01 | +64K | +228K | -164K |
| 2024-03-01 | +228K | +206K | +22K |
| 2024-02-01 | +206K | +175K | +31K |
| 2024-01-01 | +175K | +154K | +21K |
| 2023-12-01 | +154K | +127K | +27K |
| 2023-11-01 | +127K | +159K | -32K |
| 2023-10-01 | +159K | +156K | +3K |
| 2023-09-01 | +156K | +218K | -62K |
| 2023-08-01 | +218K | +163K | +55K |
Official published series (PAYEMS) via FRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · released monthly, first friday (employment situation report) at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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