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The FED SPEAK Tab: Voters, Hawk/Dove Leans and How to Read a Speaker

Fed officials move the bond market with sentences rather than data points, but not every official moves it equally. The same sentence from a name further down the roster barely registers. The FED SPEAK tab is the live FOMC roster that tells you which is which. Before anyone opens their mouth you can see whether they vote, which way they lean, and whether their tone has shifted lately. The tab sits inside the ECONOMIC CALENDAR panel, next to the CALENDAR tab, and refreshes every 60 seconds.

How the roster is split

SPEAKING · UPCOMING lists the next scheduled appearances, soonest first, with one slot per official. Anything happening today is highlighted in yellow.

The seven governors sit under BOARD OF GOVERNORS, which means the Chair, the Vice Chairs and the Governors. They vote at every FOMC meeting.

Under RESERVE BANK PRESIDENTS you get the twelve regional Fed presidents, and this is where the voting gets fiddly. New York always votes, and 4 of the remaining eleven rotate onto the committee each January, so a name with a voter badge this year may not have one next year. An asterisk after a name marks an interim president.

The voter badge

Every official carries a purple VOTER or a grey NON-VOTER badge, and it changes what their words are worth. A voter's remarks go straight into the next rate decision, so the same sentence prices differently depending on whose mouth it came out of. A voting president hinting at a pause is tradeable. A non-voter saying exactly that is context. The badge also saves you the arithmetic. The committee is 7 governors, 1 New York president and 4 rotating presidents, which is 12 votes.

The scale bar and the ↻ chip

Each official has a HAWK, DOVE or NEUTRAL label and a scale bar running from -3 (most dovish, filling left in blue) to +3 (most hawkish, filling right in red). That is reputation, the baseline the market already prices.

The ↻ chip is doing something else. It reads the official's tone live from their own statements over roughly the last six weeks, and the number on it, as in ↻HAWK3, is the count of directional statements behind that read. The chip worth stopping on is the one pointing the opposite way to the reputation label.

Sizing up a speaker

The market prices the gap between what an official says and what it already assumed they would say, not the message itself. A known hawk sounding hawkish is nothing. A known hawk softening is a rally.

So run the same checks in the same order every time. Badge first, because it sets what everything after it is worth. Then the baseline lean off the scale bar, then the ↻ chip to see whether the shift has already started. Last is the venue, which shows on the calendar row, and it matters because prepared testimony or a monetary policy conference outranks panel Q&A or commencement remarks.

Speeches on the CALENDAR tab

Scheduled speeches also show up as purple rows on the main CALENDAR tab, prefixed with the speaker's surname and carrying the same voter badge. Those rows are qualitative, with no forecast, no actual and no sigma bands, and because there is nothing numeric to capture they never show as awaiting data. The substance lands in the feed as it is spoken.

Following the remarks live

Whatever is said crosses the live feed as Fed Speak items, with the excerpt and a hawk/dove read seconds after it publishes, and the Chair's words outweigh everyone else's. For an official's back catalogue, the Fed speaker hubs archive every captured speech with its lean and score.

FAQ

Why does a speech row have no forecast or actual?

Speeches are qualitative, so there is nothing to forecast and nothing to print. The row is only the schedule. The remarks themselves cross in the live feed with an excerpt and a hawk/dove read the moment they publish.

What does the ↻HAWK3 chip mean?

It is a live read of that official's tone, taken from their own recent statements. HAWK is the direction, and the 3 in ↻HAWK3 is how many directional statements sit behind it over roughly the last six weeks. The chip updates as new remarks cross, and it is most useful when it disagrees with their reputation label.

Who actually votes on rates?

All seven governors and the New York Fed president vote at every meeting. Four of the other eleven regional presidents rotate onto the committee each January, and the VOTER/NON-VOTER badge on every row shows where this year's rotation landed.

Why is a non-voter still worth watching?

Non-voters sit in every FOMC discussion and they rotate into a vote eventually. One on their own is context rather than a catalyst, but when several shift tone at once that often front-runs the committee.
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