Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: 0.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation — Actual 0.6, forecast 0.9, prev 1.3. BELOW FORECAST · -0.9σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
Latest desk notes
US economic releases go up with the σ surprise, which is how far the print landed from forecast in standard deviations, and with the measured market move that followed. Treasury auction recaps and the daily brief land the same way, published by the Helious desk the moment they happen.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (unch) · Fed ON RRP $0.7B (-$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-24: 3.64% (prior 3.64%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-24: $0.7B (prior day $0.9B).
Week ahead: Fed Interest Rate Decision Wednesday, FOMC Press Conference Wednesday · US data & auctions, w/c 27 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
The desk's plan for the week of Monday 27 July 2026 — 40 scheduled US events, 7 high-impact, 10 Treasury auctions.
ECB facing mid-sized inflation shock, will get to 2% in year or so, La, 10s +4bp — desk brief, Fri 24 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-23): 2s 4.37% (+6.0bp), 10s 4.71% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.17% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-23): VIX 18.7, 2s10s +36bp.
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 82K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Oil NC Net Positions — Actual 82K, prev 63K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: -17K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions — Actual -17K, prev -39K. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: 184K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
CFTC Gold NC Net Positions — Actual 184K, prev 187K. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 450
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count — Actual 450, prev 452. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.8% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.8% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.8%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.8%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-24.
New Home Sales (MoM): 0.63M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
New Home Sales (MoM) — Actual 0.63M, forecast 0.61M, prev 0.58M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Actual 53.8, forecast 54.5, prev 53.9. BELOW FORECAST · -0.8σ. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
S&P Global Composite PMI: 53.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI — Actual 53.6, prev 51.9. ON THE SCREWS. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
S&P Global Services PMI: 53.6
ECONOMIC RELEASE
S&P Global Services PMI — Actual 53.6, forecast 51, prev 51.2. ABOVE FORECAST · +2.9σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.64% (+2bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.9B (+$0.5B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-23: 3.64% (prior 3.62%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-23: $0.9B (prior day $0.4B).
Initial Jobless Claims: 187K, 10s +4bp — desk brief, Thu 23 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-22): 2s 4.31% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.67% (+4.0bp), 30s 5.15% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-22): VIX 16.64, 2s10s +36bp.
Fed balance sheet $6.75T, +$4.3B w/w — balance sheet expanding
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Federal Reserve total assets (H.4.1, WALCL) as of 2026-07-22: $6,747,378M, vs $6,743,028M the prior week.
10-Year TIPS auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $21B on offer, B/C 2.30 (avg 2.40), high 2.438%, indirect 65.2% (avg 62.9), direct 25.0% (avg 25.6), dealer 9.9% (avg 11.5). IN LINE demand, no directional read for bonds.
8-Week (2-month) Bill auction: WEAK
TREASURY AUCTION
. $100B on offer, B/C 2.31 (avg 2.80), high 3.795% (inv 3.871%), indirect 39.7% (avg 65.8), direct 4.6% (avg 3.5), dealer 55.6% (avg 30.7). WEAK demand, Bonds BEARISH.
4-Week (1-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $110B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.80), high 3.730% (inv 3.793%), indirect 65.5% (avg 64.2), direct 4.7% (avg 3.8), dealer 29.8% (avg 32.0).
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 17
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity — Actual 17, prev 19. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change: 32.0B
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change — Actual 32.0B, forecast 29.0B, prev 41.0B. ABOVE FORECAST · +0.2σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.4% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.5% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.4%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.5%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-23.
Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.80M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Continuing Jobless Claims — Actual 1.80M, prev 1.80M. ON THE SCREWS · +0.0σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 208K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average — Actual 208K, prev 214K. BELOW FORECAST · -0.4σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.02
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Activity Index — Actual -0.02, prev -0.1. ABOVE FORECAST. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Initial Jobless Claims: 187K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims — Actual 187K, forecast 212K, prev 208K. BELOW FORECAST · -1.8σ. Bonds BEARISH · Equities BULLISH.
Money markets: SOFR 3.62% (+1bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.4B (+$0.1B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-22: 3.62% (prior 3.61%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-22: $0.4B (prior day $0.3B).
Turkey Rates to Stay Put as Middle East War Impedes Disinflation, 10s +3bp — desk brief, Wed 22 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-21): 2s 4.26% (+5.0bp), 10s 4.63% (+3.0bp), 30s 5.13% (+2.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-21): VIX 17.05, 2s10s +37bp.
20-Year Bond auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $13B on offer, B/C 2.64 (avg 2.66), high 5.163%, tailed 0.5bp (avg -0.3bp), indirect 69.1% (avg 66.0), direct 16.2% (avg 23.9), dealer 14.7% (avg 10.1).
17-Week (4-month) Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $72B on offer, B/C 2.76 (avg 2.95), high 3.845% (inv 3.949%), indirect 53.1% (avg 58.4), direct 5.6% (avg 5.1), dealer 41.3% (avg 36.4).
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: 2.01M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — Actual 2.01M, forecast -1.50M, prev -1.69M. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.4σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.2% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.4% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.2%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.4%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-22.
Money markets: SOFR 3.61% (+4bp) · Fed ON RRP $0.3B (+$0.2B d/d)
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Secured Overnight Financing Rate for 2026-07-21: 3.61% (prior 3.57%). ON RRP total accepted for 2026-07-21: $0.3B (prior day $0.0B).
MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.9%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
MBA Mortgage Applications — Actual 1.9%, prev -2.7%. ABOVE FORECAST · +1.3σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
US ADP Wkly Employment Change Actual 16.5k (Forecast -, Previous 19.75, 10s +5bp — desk brief, Tue 21 Jul 2026
DAILY BRIEF
Treasuries (close 2026-07-20): 2s 4.21% (+3.0bp), 10s 4.6% (+5.0bp), 30s 5.11% (+5.0bp). Tape (close 2026-07-20): VIX 18.65, 2s10s +37bp.
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -1.7M
ECONOMIC RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — Actual -1.7M, prev -0.06M. BELOW PRIOR. Desk read: Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
6-Week Bill auction: IN LINE
TREASURY AUCTION
. $95B on offer, B/C 2.79 (avg 2.93), high 3.650% (inv 3.717%), indirect 71.0% (avg 66.4), direct 2.6% (avg 3.2), dealer 26.4% (avg 30.4).
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast: Q3 CPI 1.0% · core CPI 1.9% · PCE 2.3% · core PCE 3.2%
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasting model, Q3 2026 (quarterly annualized % change): CPI 1.0%, core CPI 1.9%, PCE 2.3%, core PCE 3.2%. Model update as of 2026-07-21.
Redbook Index (YoY): 7.8
ECONOMIC RELEASE
Redbook Index (YoY) — Actual 7.8, prev 8.2. BELOW FORECAST · -0.7σ. Bonds neutral · Equities neutral.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 16K
ECONOMIC RELEASE
ADP Employment Change 4-week average — Actual 16K, prev 20K. BELOW FORECAST. Bonds BULLISH · Equities BEARISH.
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