Core CPI (ex Food & Energy) last printed 0.20% on Wed, Aug 12, 2026 against a 0.20% consensus forecast and a 0.00% prior, a 0 sigma surprise. The next release is Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Published by Bureau of Labor Statistics, captured live by Helious.
Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy, so it's the cleaner signal on underlying inflation trend. The Fed and rates desks key off the monthly core print more than the headline. A string of 0.3s vs 0.2s is the difference between cuts priced in or priced out.
A core beat (hotter) is bearish Treasuries and hits the belly hardest as the market reprices the Fed path. Misses to the downside rally bonds fast, especially when cuts are live. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Aug 12, 2026 | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.00σ | ON THE SCREWS |
| Tue, Jul 14, 2026 | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | -3.33σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (% M/M) | Y/Y | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | +0.22% | 2.5% | -0.02% | +0.24% |
| 2026-06-01 | -0.02% | 2.6% | +0.21% | -0.23% |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.21% | 2.8% | +0.38% | -0.17% |
| 2026-04-01 | +0.38% | 2.7% | +0.2% | +0.18% |
| 2026-03-01 | +0.2% | 2.6% | +0.22% | -0.02% |
| 2026-02-01 | +0.22% | 2.5% | +0.3% | -0.08% |
| 2026-01-01 | +0.3% | 2.5% | +0.23% | +0.07% |
| 2025-12-01 | +0.23% | 2.6% | +0.22% | +0.01% |
| 2025-09-01 | +0.22% | 3.0% | +0.31% | -0.09% |
| 2025-08-01 | +0.31% | 3.1% | +0.31% | +0% |
| 2025-07-01 | +0.31% | 3.1% | +0.23% | +0.08% |
| 2025-06-01 | +0.23% | 2.9% | +0.13% | +0.1% |
| 2025-05-01 | +0.13% | 2.8% | +0.24% | -0.11% |
| 2025-04-01 | +0.24% | 2.8% | +0.07% | +0.17% |
| 2025-03-01 | +0.07% | 2.8% | +0.25% | -0.18% |
| 2025-02-01 | +0.25% | 3.1% | +0.43% | -0.18% |
| 2025-01-01 | +0.43% | 3.3% | +0.19% | +0.24% |
| 2024-12-01 | +0.19% | 3.2% | +0.29% | -0.1% |
| 2024-11-01 | +0.29% | 3.3% | +0.31% | -0.02% |
| 2024-10-01 | +0.31% | 3.3% | +0.31% | +0% |
| 2024-09-01 | +0.31% | 3.3% | +0.25% | +0.06% |
| 2024-08-01 | +0.25% | 3.3% | +0.17% | +0.08% |
| 2024-07-01 | +0.17% | 3.2% | +0.09% | +0.08% |
| 2024-06-01 | +0.09% | 3.3% | +0.14% | -0.05% |
| 2024-05-01 | +0.14% | 3.4% | +0.27% | -0.13% |
| 2024-04-01 | +0.27% | 3.6% | +0.39% | -0.12% |
| 2024-03-01 | +0.39% | 3.8% | +0.4% | -0.01% |
| 2024-02-01 | +0.4% | 3.8% | +0.36% | +0.04% |
| 2024-01-01 | +0.36% | 3.9% | +0.26% | +0.1% |
| 2023-12-01 | +0.26% | 3.9% | +0.3% | -0.04% |
| 2023-11-01 | +0.3% | 4.0% | +0.3% | +0% |
| 2023-10-01 | +0.3% | 4.0% | +0.31% | -0.01% |
| 2023-09-01 | +0.31% | 4.1% | +0.2% | +0.11% |
| 2023-08-01 | +0.2% | 4.4% | +0.21% | -0.01% |
| 2023-07-01 | +0.21% | 4.7% | — | — |
Official published series (CPILFESL) via FRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · released monthly, released with headline cpi mid-month at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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