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Core PCE Price Index: release dates, results and history

Core PCE Price Index last printed 0.2 on Wed, Sep 30, 2026 against a 0.3 consensus forecast and a 0.2 prior, a -1.67 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.

Core PCE is the number the Fed targets. Every dot in the SEP is framed against it. Rates desks take the monthly run-rate, annualize it over 3m and 6m, and judge from that whether inflation is heading back to 2%. Which way it is going tips the next FOMC dovish or hawkish.

NEXT RELEASE
Released monthly, end of month with personal income & outlays, usually around 8:30 AM ET. The desk posts the print the second it lands.
LATEST PRINT:
0.2
actual
0.3
forecast
0.2
prior
-1.67
std dev vs forecast
MISS
Surprise vs forecast
−1.67 std dev MISS
-2-10+1+2
Printed below forecast. That gap is 1.67 times the size of a normal gap for this indicator.

The trend

OFFICIAL SERIES · LAST 36 OBSERVATIONS · % M/M
The official published series at its current vintage, revisions included, so the newest point can differ from the number as first printed. The release-by-release history, with the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise on every row, comes through the Helious API.

How it moves Treasuries

A hot core PCE print is bearish right across the curve, and the front end, the short maturities, leads. An in-line or soft print usually just extends whatever move started after CPI. Surprises are rare, but when one comes it lands hard, because this is the target itself. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.

Recent prints, as captured by the desk

DATEACTUALFORECASTPRIORSURPRISE (SD)PRINT
0.2 0.3 0.2 -1.67 BELOW FORECAST
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.00 ON THE SCREWS
0.1 0.2 0.3 -1.67 BELOW FORECAST

The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.

Official series history

PERIODVALUE (% M/M)Y/YPRIOR
+0.25% 3.0% +0.13%
+0.13% 3.0% +0.13%
+0.13% 3.0% +0.31%
+0.31% 3.2% +0.28%
+0.28% 3.1% +0.26%
+0.26% 3.1% +0.34%
+0.34% 3.0% +0.4%
+0.4% 2.9% +0.32%

These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.

Monthly, end of month with Personal Income & Outlays · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.

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