Core PCE Price Index last printed 3.4 on Thu, Jul 30, 2026 against a 3.5 consensus forecast and a 4.4 prior. The next release is Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Published by Bureau of Economic Analysis, captured live by Helious.
Core PCE is THE number the Fed targets: every dot in the SEP is framed against it. Rates desks track the monthly annualized run-rate (3m and 6m) as the real-time scorecard on whether inflation is heading back to 2%. It decides whether the next FOMC leans dovish or hawkish.
A hot core PCE print is bearish across the curve with the front end leading; an in-line or soft print typically extends whatever the post-CPI move was. Surprises are rare but potent since this is the target itself. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | — | ON THE SCREWS |
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -1.67σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (% M/M) | Y/Y | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | +0.13% | 3.3% | +0.33% | -0.2% |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.33% | 3.4% | +0.25% | +0.08% |
| 2026-04-01 | +0.25% | 3.3% | +0.3% | -0.05% |
| 2026-03-01 | +0.3% | 3.3% | +0.39% | -0.09% |
| 2026-02-01 | +0.39% | 3.0% | +0.44% | -0.05% |
| 2026-01-01 | +0.44% | 3.1% | +0.33% | +0.11% |
| 2025-12-01 | +0.33% | 3.0% | +0.18% | +0.15% |
| 2025-11-01 | +0.18% | 2.8% | +0.23% | -0.05% |
| 2025-10-01 | +0.23% | 2.8% | +0.19% | +0.04% |
| 2025-09-01 | +0.19% | 2.8% | +0.22% | -0.03% |
| 2025-08-01 | +0.22% | 2.9% | +0.24% | -0.02% |
| 2025-07-01 | +0.24% | 2.9% | +0.26% | -0.02% |
| 2025-06-01 | +0.26% | 2.8% | +0.23% | +0.03% |
| 2025-05-01 | +0.23% | 2.8% | +0.19% | +0.04% |
| 2025-04-01 | +0.19% | 2.6% | +0.1% | +0.09% |
| 2025-03-01 | +0.1% | 2.7% | +0.45% | -0.35% |
| 2025-02-01 | +0.45% | 3.0% | +0.31% | +0.14% |
| 2025-01-01 | +0.31% | 2.8% | +0.19% | +0.12% |
| 2024-12-01 | +0.19% | 3.0% | +0.1% | +0.09% |
| 2024-11-01 | +0.1% | 3.0% | +0.3% | -0.2% |
| 2024-10-01 | +0.3% | 3.0% | +0.27% | +0.03% |
| 2024-09-01 | +0.27% | 2.8% | +0.18% | +0.09% |
| 2024-08-01 | +0.18% | 2.9% | +0.19% | -0.01% |
| 2024-07-01 | +0.19% | 2.8% | +0.24% | -0.05% |
| 2024-06-01 | +0.24% | 2.8% | +0.06% | +0.18% |
| 2024-05-01 | +0.06% | 2.8% | +0.24% | -0.18% |
| 2024-04-01 | +0.24% | 3.0% | +0.39% | -0.15% |
| 2024-03-01 | +0.39% | 3.1% | +0.26% | +0.13% |
| 2024-02-01 | +0.26% | 3.1% | +0.52% | -0.26% |
| 2024-01-01 | +0.52% | 3.2% | +0.18% | +0.34% |
| 2023-12-01 | +0.18% | 3.1% | +0.11% | +0.07% |
| 2023-11-01 | +0.11% | 3.3% | +0.15% | -0.04% |
| 2023-10-01 | +0.15% | 3.5% | +0.31% | -0.16% |
| 2023-09-01 | +0.31% | 3.7% | +0.11% | +0.2% |
| 2023-08-01 | +0.11% | 3.8% | +0.14% | -0.03% |
| 2023-07-01 | +0.14% | 4.3% | +0.26% | -0.12% |
Official published series (PCEPILFE) via FRED, Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · released monthly, end of month with personal income & outlays at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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