PCE Price Index last printed 5.1 on Thu, Jul 30, 2026 against a 4.6 prior. The next release is Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Published by Bureau of Economic Analysis, captured live by Helious.
PCE is the Fed's official inflation target measure: the 2% goal is a PCE number, not CPI. It lands after CPI and PPI so much of it is forecastable, but surprises still move rates because this is the number in the Fed's SEP. When PCE and CPI diverge, the Fed follows PCE.
Hotter PCE is bearish Treasuries; the move is usually smaller than CPI day because components are largely inferred from CPI/PPI. A genuine surprise here reprices the Fed path directly. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | 5.1 | — | 4.6 | — | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.00σ | ON THE SCREWS |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (% M/M) | Y/Y | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | -0.11% | 3.7% | +0.46% | -0.57% |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.46% | 4.1% | +0.41% | +0.05% |
| 2026-04-01 | +0.41% | 3.8% | +0.67% | -0.26% |
| 2026-03-01 | +0.67% | 3.5% | +0.4% | +0.27% |
| 2026-02-01 | +0.4% | 2.9% | +0.35% | +0.05% |
| 2026-01-01 | +0.35% | 2.9% | +0.33% | +0.02% |
| 2025-12-01 | +0.33% | 2.9% | +0.22% | +0.11% |
| 2025-11-01 | +0.22% | 2.8% | +0.19% | +0.03% |
| 2025-10-01 | +0.19% | 2.7% | +0.26% | -0.07% |
| 2025-09-01 | +0.26% | 2.8% | +0.26% | +0% |
| 2025-08-01 | +0.26% | 2.7% | +0.17% | +0.09% |
| 2025-07-01 | +0.17% | 2.6% | +0.29% | -0.12% |
| 2025-06-01 | +0.29% | 2.6% | +0.18% | +0.11% |
| 2025-05-01 | +0.18% | 2.5% | +0.17% | +0.01% |
| 2025-04-01 | +0.17% | 2.3% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 2025-03-01 | +0.02% | 2.4% | +0.4% | -0.38% |
| 2025-02-01 | +0.4% | 2.7% | +0.35% | +0.05% |
| 2025-01-01 | +0.35% | 2.6% | +0.27% | +0.08% |
| 2024-12-01 | +0.27% | 2.7% | +0.11% | +0.16% |
| 2024-11-01 | +0.11% | 2.6% | +0.27% | -0.16% |
| 2024-10-01 | +0.27% | 2.5% | +0.22% | +0.05% |
| 2024-09-01 | +0.22% | 2.3% | +0.12% | +0.1% |
| 2024-08-01 | +0.12% | 2.4% | +0.16% | -0.04% |
| 2024-07-01 | +0.16% | 2.6% | +0.15% | +0.01% |
| 2024-06-01 | +0.15% | 2.5% | +0.01% | +0.14% |
| 2024-05-01 | +0.01% | 2.7% | +0.25% | -0.24% |
| 2024-04-01 | +0.25% | 2.8% | +0.36% | -0.11% |
| 2024-03-01 | +0.36% | 2.9% | +0.3% | +0.06% |
| 2024-02-01 | +0.3% | 2.7% | +0.47% | -0.17% |
| 2024-01-01 | +0.47% | 2.7% | +0.14% | +0.33% |
| 2023-12-01 | +0.14% | 2.8% | +0.01% | +0.13% |
| 2023-11-01 | +0.01% | 2.8% | +0.05% | -0.04% |
| 2023-10-01 | +0.05% | 3.0% | +0.37% | -0.32% |
| 2023-09-01 | +0.37% | 3.4% | +0.3% | +0.07% |
| 2023-08-01 | +0.3% | 3.4% | +0.11% | +0.19% |
| 2023-07-01 | +0.11% | 3.4% | +0.27% | -0.16% |
Official published series (PCEPI) via FRED, Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · released monthly, end of month with personal income & outlays at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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