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PCE Price Index: release dates, results and history

PCE Price Index last printed 0.3 on Wed, Sep 30, 2026 against a 0.4 consensus forecast and a 0.2 prior, a -1.43 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.

The Fed's inflation target is written in PCE terms, so the 2% everyone quotes is a PCE number and not a CPI one. PCE lands after CPI and PPI, so a good part of it can be worked out in advance. A surprise still moves rates though, because this is the figure that goes into the Fed's SEP. When PCE and CPI point different ways, the Fed follows PCE.

NEXT RELEASE
Released monthly, end of month with personal income & outlays, usually around 8:30 AM ET. The desk posts the print the second it lands.
LATEST PRINT:
0.3
actual
0.4
forecast
0.2
prior
-1.43
std dev vs forecast
MISS
Surprise vs forecast
−1.43 std dev MISS
-2-10+1+2
Printed below forecast. That gap is 1.43 times the size of a normal gap for this indicator.

The trend

OFFICIAL SERIES · LAST 36 OBSERVATIONS · % M/M
The official published series at its current vintage, revisions included, so the newest point can differ from the number as first printed. The release-by-release history, with the consensus forecast and standard-deviation surprise on every row, comes through the Helious API.

How it moves Treasuries

Hotter PCE is bearish for Treasuries, but the reaction is usually smaller than on CPI day. By the time this one prints, most of the components have already been inferred from CPI and PPI. A genuine surprise still reprices the Fed path directly. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.

Recent prints, as captured by the desk

DATEACTUALFORECASTPRIORSURPRISE (SD)PRINT
0.3 0.4 0.2 -1.43 BELOW FORECAST
0.2 0.1 -0.1 +1.43 ABOVE FORECAST
-0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.00 ON THE SCREWS

The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.

Official series history

PERIODVALUE (% M/M)Y/YPRIOR
+0.31% 3.4% +0.05%
+0.05% 3.4% -0.1%
-0.1% 3.5% +0.44%
+0.44% 3.8% +0.44%
+0.44% 3.6% +0.63%
+0.63% 3.4% +0.35%
+0.35% 2.8% +0.3%
+0.3% 2.7% +0.32%

These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.

Monthly, end of month with Personal Income & Outlays · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.

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