What is CPI?
CPI, the Consumer Price Index, measures the average change in the prices US urban consumers pay for a fixed basket of goods and services. It is the most quoted US inflation figure and comes out monthly at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in the prices US urban consumers pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, from rent and food to cars and airfares. It comes out monthly at 8:30 a.m. ET, around the middle of the month, for the month before.
The latest CPI reading, released , was 0.40% month over month, against a 0.30% forecast and a 0.60% prior. The next one is due . History is on the CPI page.
The latest core CPI reading, released , was 0.30% month over month, against a 0.20% forecast and a 0.30% prior. The next one is due . History is on the core CPI page.
Why traders watch CPI
CPI lands before PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, every month, so it is the first hard read on whether inflation is cooling or heating up, and the Fed's next move turns on that. A hotter print pushes rate cuts further out and is bearish for Treasuries, with the 2-year moving most. Traders read the month-over-month change to the second decimal, because 0.2% a month compounds to about 2.4% a year and 0.3% to about 3.7%.
Headline CPI and core CPI
Headline CPI counts everything in the basket. Core CPI takes out food and energy, which swing with the weather and oil, so it shows the underlying trend better, and markets usually trade the core figure. Both come out in the same release. The year-over-year rate is the figure quoted in the news; the month-over-month change is the one that moves markets on the day.
FAQ
What was the latest CPI print?
Helious posts every CPI release as it publishes, with the actual against the forecast and the size of the surprise, on the CPI page, which also has the full history.
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Headline CPI includes everything in the basket. Core CPI leaves out food and energy, which are volatile, so it shows the underlying trend. Markets usually trade the core month-over-month figure.