GDP Growth Rate last printed +1.5% on Thu, Jul 30, 2026 against a 2.1% consensus forecast and a 2.0% prior, a -1.09 sigma surprise. The next release is Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Published by Bureau of Economic Analysis, captured live by Helious.
The advance GDP estimate is the quarter's headline growth verdict and the vintage that moves markets. Second and third estimates rarely do. Desks look past the headline to final sales and the core PCE quarterly figure buried in the release. A growth scare or blowout resets the soft-landing debate in one print.
A GDP beat is bearish Treasuries on the growth channel, but the embedded price index can dominate: a soft deflator with a strong headline can leave yields lower. Advance estimate surprises of half a point move the long end. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | +1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | -1.09σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | — | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 30, 2026 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | -1.09σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (% Q/Q SAAR) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | +1.5% | +2.1% | -0.6% |
| 2026-01-01 | +2.1% | +0.5% | +1.6% |
| 2025-10-01 | +0.5% | +4.4% | -3.9% |
| 2025-07-01 | +4.4% | +3.8% | +0.6% |
| 2025-04-01 | +3.8% | -0.6% | +4.4% |
| 2025-01-01 | -0.6% | +1.9% | -2.5% |
| 2024-10-01 | +1.9% | +3.3% | -1.4% |
| 2024-07-01 | +3.3% | +3.6% | -0.3% |
| 2024-04-01 | +3.6% | +0.8% | +2.8% |
| 2024-01-01 | +0.8% | +3.4% | -2.6% |
| 2023-10-01 | +3.4% | +4.7% | -1.3% |
| 2023-07-01 | +4.7% | +2.5% | +2.2% |
| 2023-04-01 | +2.5% | +2.9% | -0.4% |
| 2023-01-01 | +2.9% | +2.8% | +0.1% |
| 2022-10-01 | +2.8% | +2.9% | -0.1% |
| 2022-07-01 | +2.9% | +0.6% | +2.3% |
| 2022-04-01 | +0.6% | -1% | +1.6% |
| 2022-01-01 | -1% | +7% | -8% |
| 2021-10-01 | +7% | +3.3% | +3.7% |
| 2021-07-01 | +3.3% | +7% | -3.7% |
| 2021-04-01 | +7% | +5.7% | +1.3% |
| 2021-01-01 | +5.7% | +4.6% | +1.1% |
| 2020-10-01 | +4.6% | +34.9% | -30.3% |
| 2020-07-01 | +34.9% | -28% | +62.9% |
| 2020-04-01 | -28% | -5.2% | -22.8% |
| 2020-01-01 | -5.2% | +2.8% | -8% |
| 2019-10-01 | +2.8% | +4.8% | -2% |
| 2019-07-01 | +4.8% | +3.4% | +1.4% |
| 2019-04-01 | +3.4% | +2.5% | +0.9% |
| 2019-01-01 | +2.5% | +0.6% | +1.9% |
| 2018-10-01 | +0.6% | +2.5% | -1.9% |
| 2018-07-01 | +2.5% | +2.1% | +0.4% |
| 2018-04-01 | +2.1% | +3.3% | -1.2% |
| 2018-01-01 | +3.3% | +4.6% | -1.3% |
| 2017-10-01 | +4.6% | +3.2% | +1.4% |
| 2017-07-01 | +3.2% | +2.3% | +0.9% |
Official published series (A191RL1Q225SBEA) via FRED, Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · released quarterly, three vintages: advance (~month 1), second, third estimate at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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