GDP Growth Rate: release dates, results and history
GDP Growth Rate last printed 2.2 on Wed, Sep 30, 2026 against a 1.5 consensus forecast and a 1.5 prior, a +1.27 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
Only the advance estimate really trades. It comes first, and by the time the second and third estimates land the market has usually stopped caring about them. Traders skip the headline growth rate and go looking for final sales, then the quarterly core PCE figure further down the release. One print is enough to restart the soft-landing argument, whether it comes as a growth scare or a blowout.
The trend
How it moves Treasuries
Stronger growth sells Treasuries, so a beat pushes yields up. The release also carries its own price index, the deflator, and that can count for more than the growth read. A strong headline next to a soft deflator can still leave yields lower on the day. Half a point of surprise on the advance estimate is enough to move the long end. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | +1.27 | ABOVE FORECAST | |
| 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.00 | ON THE SCREWS | |
| +1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | -1.09 | BELOW FORECAST |
The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Official series history
| PERIOD | VALUE (% Q/Q SAAR) | PRIOR |
|---|---|---|
| +2.2% | +2.5% | |
| +2.5% | +0.2% | |
| +0.2% | +3.9% | |
| +3.9% | +4% | |
| +4% | +0.1% | |
| +0.1% | +2.4% | |
| +2.4% | +3.2% | |
| +3.2% | +3.6% |
These are the most recent official rows, and the chart above draws the longer series behind them. The desk-captured prints higher up the page carry the consensus forecast and the standard-deviation surprise as they stood the moment each number landed.
Related indicators
Quarterly, three vintages: advance (~month 1), second, third estimate · 8:30 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.