Industrial Production last printed 0.2 on Tue, Aug 18, 2026 against a 0.3 consensus forecast and a 0.1 prior, a -0.32 sigma surprise. Published by Federal Reserve, captured live by Helious.
The Fed's own G.17 measures physical output across factories, mines, and utilities: real activity, not surveys or dollars. Capacity utilization in the same release is an old-school inflation-pressure gauge. It's a second-tier mover but a first-tier input for recession dating, since the NBER watches it.
Stronger production is modestly bearish Treasuries; the market reaction is usually small unless it confirms a run of surprises in one direction. The odd 9:15 timing means it hits between the 8:30 data and the equity open. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (% M/M) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | +0.2% | +0.27% | -0.07% |
| 2026-06-01 | +0.27% | -0.01% | +0.28% |
| 2026-05-01 | -0.01% | +0.75% | -0.76% |
| 2026-04-01 | +0.75% | -0.15% | +0.9% |
| 2026-03-01 | -0.15% | +0.86% | -1.01% |
| 2026-02-01 | +0.86% | -0.45% | +1.31% |
| 2026-01-01 | -0.45% | +0.45% | -0.9% |
| 2025-12-01 | +0.45% | -0.18% | +0.63% |
| 2025-11-01 | -0.18% | -0.44% | +0.26% |
| 2025-10-01 | -0.44% | +0.04% | -0.48% |
| 2025-09-01 | +0.04% | -0.26% | +0.3% |
| 2025-08-01 | -0.26% | +0.41% | -0.67% |
| 2025-07-01 | +0.41% | +0.51% | -0.1% |
| 2025-06-01 | +0.51% | -0.16% | +0.67% |
| 2025-05-01 | -0.16% | +0.09% | -0.25% |
| 2025-04-01 | +0.09% | -0.06% | +0.15% |
| 2025-03-01 | -0.06% | +1.03% | -1.09% |
| 2025-02-01 | +1.03% | -0.26% | +1.29% |
| 2025-01-01 | -0.26% | +1.04% | -1.3% |
| 2024-12-01 | +1.04% | -0.18% | +1.22% |
| 2024-11-01 | -0.18% | -0.34% | +0.16% |
| 2024-10-01 | -0.34% | -0.62% | +0.28% |
| 2024-09-01 | -0.62% | +0.46% | -1.08% |
| 2024-08-01 | +0.46% | -0.91% | +1.37% |
| 2024-07-01 | -0.91% | +0.03% | -0.94% |
| 2024-06-01 | +0.03% | +0.62% | -0.59% |
| 2024-05-01 | +0.62% | -0.21% | +0.83% |
| 2024-04-01 | -0.21% | +0.17% | -0.38% |
| 2024-03-01 | +0.17% | +1.07% | -0.9% |
| 2024-02-01 | +1.07% | -1.37% | +2.44% |
| 2024-01-01 | -1.37% | -0.26% | -1.11% |
| 2023-12-01 | -0.26% | +0.39% | -0.65% |
| 2023-11-01 | +0.39% | -0.55% | +0.94% |
| 2023-10-01 | -0.55% | +0.18% | -0.73% |
| 2023-09-01 | +0.18% | -0.07% | +0.25% |
| 2023-08-01 | -0.07% | +0.79% | -0.86% |
Official published series (INDPRO) via FRED, Federal Reserve data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: Federal Reserve · released monthly, ~mid-month (g.17 release) at 9:15 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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