Retail Sales last printed -0.40% on Fri, Aug 14, 2026 against a 0.50% prior, a -2.57 sigma surprise. Published by US Census Bureau, captured live by Helious.
Retail sales is the first hard read on the consumer, who drives two-thirds of GDP. The control group, ex autos, gas, building materials, food services, feeds straight into GDP consumption estimates and is what desks actually trade. Headline noise from autos and gas prices frequently masks the real signal.
A control-group beat is bearish Treasuries as GDP trackers get marked up. Nominal prints get discounted in high-inflation months since the data isn't inflation-adjusted. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 14, 2026 | -0.40% | — | 0.50% | -2.57σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Fri, Aug 14, 2026 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -2.19σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Fri, Aug 14, 2026 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -1.79σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Thu, Jul 16, 2026 | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.00σ | ON THE SCREWS |
| Thu, Jul 16, 2026 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.00σ | ON THE SCREWS |
| Thu, Jul 16, 2026 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.36σ | BELOW FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (% M/M) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | -0.58% | +0.25% | -0.83% |
| 2026-06-01 | +0.25% | +0.93% | -0.68% |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.93% | +0.67% | +0.26% |
| 2026-04-01 | +0.67% | +1.72% | -1.05% |
| 2026-03-01 | +1.72% | +0.92% | +0.8% |
| 2026-02-01 | +0.92% | -0.03% | +0.95% |
| 2026-01-01 | -0.03% | -0% | -0.03% |
| 2025-12-01 | -0% | +0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2025-11-01 | +0.5% | -0.16% | +0.66% |
| 2025-10-01 | -0.16% | +0.07% | -0.23% |
| 2025-09-01 | +0.07% | +0.62% | -0.55% |
| 2025-08-01 | +0.62% | +1.07% | -0.45% |
| 2025-07-01 | +1.07% | +0.7% | +0.37% |
| 2025-06-01 | +0.7% | -1.1% | +1.8% |
| 2025-05-01 | -1.1% | -0.12% | -0.98% |
| 2025-04-01 | -0.12% | +1.65% | -1.77% |
| 2025-03-01 | +1.65% | +0.04% | +1.61% |
| 2025-02-01 | +0.04% | -0.84% | +0.88% |
| 2025-01-01 | -0.84% | +0.76% | -1.6% |
| 2024-12-01 | +0.76% | +0.5% | +0.26% |
| 2024-11-01 | +0.5% | +0.74% | -0.24% |
| 2024-10-01 | +0.74% | +0.86% | -0.12% |
| 2024-09-01 | +0.86% | -0.26% | +1.12% |
| 2024-08-01 | -0.26% | +0.92% | -1.18% |
| 2024-07-01 | +0.92% | -0.05% | +0.97% |
| 2024-06-01 | -0.05% | +0.75% | -0.8% |
| 2024-05-01 | +0.75% | -0.01% | +0.76% |
| 2024-04-01 | -0.01% | +0.34% | -0.35% |
| 2024-03-01 | +0.34% | +0.71% | -0.37% |
| 2024-02-01 | +0.71% | -0.85% | +1.56% |
| 2024-01-01 | -0.85% | +0.14% | -0.99% |
| 2023-12-01 | +0.14% | -0.12% | +0.26% |
| 2023-11-01 | -0.12% | -0.47% | +0.35% |
| 2023-10-01 | -0.47% | +0.68% | -1.15% |
| 2023-09-01 | +0.68% | +0.93% | -0.25% |
| 2023-08-01 | +0.93% | +0.19% | +0.74% |
Official published series (RSAFS) via FRED, US Census Bureau data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: US Census Bureau · released monthly, ~mid-month for the prior month at 8:30 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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