ISM Manufacturing PMI last printed 71.1 on Mon, Aug 3, 2026 against a 70.3 consensus forecast and a 73 prior, a +0.2 sigma surprise. The next release is Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Published by Institute for Supply Management, captured live by Helious.
ISM Manufacturing is the first major data point of every month and the classic business-cycle barometer: 50 is the expansion/contraction line. The prices-paid and new-orders subindices often move markets more than the headline: prices paid is an inflation tell, new orders leads the cycle. Deep sub-50 prints feed recession narratives fast.
A stronger ISM is bearish Treasuries; large downside misses trigger flight-to-quality bids. A hot prices-paid component can turn a soft headline into a bond-negative print. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Aug 3, 2026 | 71.1 | 70.3 | 73.0 | +0.20σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Mon, Aug 3, 2026 | 56.7 | — | 56.0 | +0.18σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Mon, Aug 3, 2026 | 52.8 | — | 49.7 | +1.03σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Mon, Aug 3, 2026 | 55.6 | 54.0 | 53.3 | +1.00σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
Primary source: Institute for Supply Management · released monthly, first business day of the month at 10:00 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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