ISM Manufacturing PMI: release dates, results and history
ISM Manufacturing PMI last printed 54.5 on Thu, Oct 1, 2026 against a 55 consensus forecast and a 54.6 prior, a -0.31 standard-deviation surprise. Captured live by Helious the moment it printed.
ISM Manufacturing is the first major number of every month and a long-running read on where the business cycle sits. Above 50 the sector is growing, below it is shrinking. Two subindices further down the report often move markets more than the headline: prices paid, which is an inflation tell, and new orders, which turns before the rest of the cycle does. Get a print deep below 50 and the recession talk starts fast.
The trend
How it moves Treasuries
A strong ISM pushes yields up. A large downside miss does the reverse and pulls in flight-to-quality bids, people buying Treasuries out of fear rather than for the yield. A hot prices-paid component can override all of that and turn a soft headline into a print that still sells bonds. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the standard-deviation surprise is computed.
Recent prints, as captured by the desk
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE (SD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.5 | 55.0 | 54.6 | -0.31 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 54.6 | 55.2 | 55.6 | -0.38 | BELOW FORECAST | |
| 55.6 | 54.0 | 53.3 | +1.00 | ABOVE FORECAST |
The 3 most recent prints from the desk's live capture, which began in July 2026, so what you see here is a sample rather than the whole record. Every row links the print page published the moment that number landed, and the full graded history is served by the API.
Related indicators
Monthly, first business day of the month · 10:00 AM ET · download a sample (CSV, recent rows), free to cite with a link to this page. The full history comes through the Helious API and MCP at api.helious.io/mcp, with depth set by plan.