Michigan Consumer Sentiment last printed 51 on Fri, Aug 14, 2026 against a 54.5 consensus forecast and a 55.2 prior, a -1.67 sigma surprise. The next release is Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Published by University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, captured live by Helious.
The sentiment headline is secondary: the market trades the inflation-expectations numbers inside this report. The 1-year and 5-10-year expectation series are inputs the Fed explicitly monitors for de-anchoring risk; Powell has cited them at pressers. The preliminary release is the market mover, the final is usually noise.
A jump in inflation expectations is bearish Treasuries regardless of the sentiment headline: a de-anchoring scare hits the long end. Soft expectations prints support the bond bid. See it scored live on the Helious desk, or read how the σ surprise is computed.
| DATE | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PRIOR | SURPRISE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Aug 14, 2026 | 51.0 | 54.5 | 55.2 | -1.67σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Fri, Aug 14, 2026 | 50.6 | — | 55.4 | -1.92σ | BELOW FORECAST |
| Fri, Jul 31, 2026 | 55.4 | 54.0 | 54.0 | — | ON THE SCREWS |
| Fri, Jul 31, 2026 | 55.2 | 54.0 | 54.4 | +0.57σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Fri, Jul 17, 2026 | 54.0 | — | 50.7 | — | ABOVE FORECAST |
| Fri, Jul 17, 2026 | 54.4 | 51.0 | 49.5 | +1.62σ | ABOVE FORECAST |
History accumulates from the desk's live capture (began July 2026). Every row links the print page published the moment the number landed.
| PERIOD | VALUE (INDEX) | PRIOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 49.5 | 44.8 | +4.7 |
| 2026-05-01 | 44.8 | 49.8 | -5 |
| 2026-04-01 | 49.8 | 53.3 | -3.5 |
| 2026-03-01 | 53.3 | 56.6 | -3.3 |
| 2026-02-01 | 56.6 | 56.4 | +0.2 |
| 2026-01-01 | 56.4 | 52.9 | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-01 | 52.9 | 51 | +1.9 |
| 2025-11-01 | 51 | 53.6 | -2.6 |
| 2025-10-01 | 53.6 | 55.1 | -1.5 |
| 2025-09-01 | 55.1 | 58.2 | -3.1 |
| 2025-08-01 | 58.2 | 61.7 | -3.5 |
| 2025-07-01 | 61.7 | 60.7 | +1 |
| 2025-06-01 | 60.7 | 52.2 | +8.5 |
| 2025-05-01 | 52.2 | 52.2 | +0 |
| 2025-04-01 | 52.2 | 57 | -4.8 |
| 2025-03-01 | 57 | 64.7 | -7.7 |
| 2025-02-01 | 64.7 | 71.7 | -7 |
| 2025-01-01 | 71.7 | 74 | -2.3 |
| 2024-12-01 | 74 | 71.8 | +2.2 |
| 2024-11-01 | 71.8 | 70.5 | +1.3 |
| 2024-10-01 | 70.5 | 70.1 | +0.4 |
| 2024-09-01 | 70.1 | 67.9 | +2.2 |
| 2024-08-01 | 67.9 | 66.4 | +1.5 |
| 2024-07-01 | 66.4 | 68.2 | -1.8 |
| 2024-06-01 | 68.2 | 69.1 | -0.9 |
| 2024-05-01 | 69.1 | 77.2 | -8.1 |
| 2024-04-01 | 77.2 | 79.4 | -2.2 |
| 2024-03-01 | 79.4 | 76.9 | +2.5 |
| 2024-02-01 | 76.9 | 79 | -2.1 |
| 2024-01-01 | 79 | 69.7 | +9.3 |
| 2023-12-01 | 69.7 | 61.3 | +8.4 |
| 2023-11-01 | 61.3 | 63.8 | -2.5 |
| 2023-10-01 | 63.8 | 67.8 | -4 |
| 2023-09-01 | 67.8 | 69.4 | -1.6 |
| 2023-08-01 | 69.4 | 71.5 | -2.1 |
| 2023-07-01 | 71.5 | 64.2 | +7.3 |
Official published series (UMCSENT) via FRED, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers data. Desk-captured prints above include the consensus forecast and σ surprise the moment each number landed.
Primary source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers · released twice monthly: preliminary mid-month friday, final end of month at 10:00 AM ET · download the history (CSV), free to cite with a link to this page.
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